TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Daniel Vitasek vs Adam Kanak 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 54 - H4 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117911117116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:04 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeAdam Kanak to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Vitasek above · Adam Kanak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 73 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Adam Kanak at 56.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Vitasek 2–3 Adam Kanak Daniel Vitasek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Kanak beat Vitasek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:0456.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kanak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vitasek 1551 vs Kanak 1539
Vitasek
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vitasek 40% vs Kanak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vitasek 50% vs Kanak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vitasek +1 · Kanak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Kanak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kanak form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVitasek 2.10 / Kanak 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kanak)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13273963
Vitasek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 96 of 204
Down 0–1, comes back22% 24 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 61
Kanak1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 44 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it72% 26 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVitasek2wins
AwayKanak3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderKanak leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVitasekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKanak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vitasek2Kanak3n = 5Kanak took 3 of 5
S2Vitasek4Kanak1n = 5Vitasek took 4 of 5
S3Vitasek2Kanak3n = 5Kanak took 3 of 5
S4Vitasek0Kanak5n = 5Kanak took 5 of 5
S5Vitasek2Kanak1n = 3Vitasek took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricVitasekKanakV − KBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match43.645.2−1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVitasekKanakBasisWin rate · lifetime322 / 678 vs 94 / 17647.5%53.4%322 / 678 vs 94 / 176Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KanakVitasek 2.10/Kanak 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Kanak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vitasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LOct 10 · 13:45D. Vitasek347113131A. Kanak4511811153
WOct 9 · 19:10D. Vitasek45311119113A. Kanak4711971192
LOct 7 · 19:45D. Vitasek4511119682A. Kanak46671111113
LSep 25 · 17:40D. Vitasek4061310111A. Kanak47111112133
WSep 14 · 18:10D. Vitasek541191112113A. Kanak4141161462
D. Vitasek10
WOct 10 · 21:14K. Kleprlik1.619712111D. Vitasek2.20111110133WOct 10 · 18:45A. Cizek1.6769100D. Vitasek2.101111123LOct 10 · 18:15K. Kleprlik1.611111163D. Vitasek2.2099140LOct 10 · 16:45L. Dzida1.8811111110123D. Vitasek1.82139412102WOct 10 · 16:15E. Precek1.83761151D. Vitasek1.8311117113LOct 10 · 15:15D. Vitasek1.611139111L. Dzida2.2081111133LOct 10 · 13:45A. Kanak1.7311811153D. Vitasek2.007113131WOct 9 · 21:10K. Kleprlik1.61891181D. Vitasek2.2011118113WOct 9 · 20:10I. Heuman1.674101181D. Vitasek2.1011125113WOct 9 · 19:10D. Vitasek2.10311119113A. Kanak1.6711971192
A. Kanak10
LOct 10 · 20:44A. Cizek1.83911118113A. Kanak1.8311591192LOct 10 · 19:15A. Kanak2.1076180K. Kleprlik1.671111203LOct 10 · 17:45A. Cizek2.201111113A. Kanak1.619760WOct 10 · 17:14E. Precek1.6711131113122A. Kanak2.107151311143WOct 10 · 15:45A. Kanak1.7311811113L. Dzida2.00811581LOct 10 · 14:45A. Kanak1.83136481E. Precek1.83111111113WOct 10 · 13:45A. Kanak1.7311811153D. Vitasek2.007113131WOct 9 · 20:40I. Heuman1.57119521A. Kanak2.2561111113LOct 9 · 19:40K. Kleprlik1.571291112113A. Kanak2.25101151492LOct 9 · 19:10D. Vitasek2.10311119113A. Kanak1.6711971192
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