TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vitezslav Bosak vs Milan Jasek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411811118119116
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched: 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeMilan Jasek to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Vitezslav Bosak @ 2.25 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingVitezslav Bosak above · Milan Jasek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 90 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Milan Jasek at 57.3%
90 points played in total.
H2H Vitezslav Bosak 3–6 Milan Jasek Vitezslav Bosak has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 19:58Sent to Pro: Vitezslav Bosak @ 2.25 · Won
57.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 6.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jasek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Jasek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bosak 1503 vs Jasek 1412
Bosak
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bosak 100% vs Jasek 40%
Bosak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bosak 70% vs Jasek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bosak +5 · Jasek -2
Bosak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Jasek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jasek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBosak 2.25 / Jasek 1.571
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Jasek)-6.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13273747
Bosak2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 32 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 40
Jasek1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 38 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it87% 32 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBosak3wins
AwayJasek6wins
2 of 9 to a deciderJasek leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBosak66.7%2 of 3
AwayJasek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bosak3Jasek6n = 9Jasek took 6 of 9
S2Bosak4Jasek5n = 9Jasek took 5 of 9
S3Bosak1Jasek8n = 9Jasek took 8 of 9
S4Bosak2Jasek1n = 3Bosak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away556%
These 9 meetings
MetricBosakJasekB − JBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match32.337.2−4.9per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBosakJasekBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 374 vs 130 / 27050%48.2%187 / 374 vs 130 / 270Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BosakBosak 2.25/Jasek 1.57
Hit
What we said
57.3%
Jasek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Vitezslav Bosak @ 2.25 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
3–2
Bosak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 22 · 20:59V. Bosak196670M. Jasek331111113
LSep 22 · 18:00V. Bosak45111161072M. Jasek47491112113
WSep 8 · 20:58V. Bosak331111113M. Jasek193970
WSep 8 · 19:30V. Bosak609111211173M. Jasek56119147152
LJul 27 · 18:00V. Bosak164750M. Jasek331111113
WJul 14 · 19:30V. Bosak4411115173M. Jasek427911151
LApr 28 · 19:30V. Bosak229760M. Jasek331111113
LApr 26 · 06:30V. Bosak2257100M. Jasek341111123
LMar 16 · 19:00V. Bosak3091470M. Jasek381116113
V. Bosak10
WOct 11 · 21:28V. Bosak1.3381311113R. Guliak3.251111971WOct 11 · 19:00V. Bosak1.5361111113F. Zurek2.38117681WOct 11 · 18:00R. Guliak2.755760V. Bosak1.401111113WOct 10 · 13:30P. Hanel1.40118144102V. Bosak2.758111211123WOct 10 · 12:30V. Bosak1.6111911113F. Zurek2.20711981WOct 10 · 11:00V. Bosak1.67113911113I. Taichman2.1061111582LOct 10 · 10:00P. Hanel1.4471111113V. Bosak2.63119761WOct 3 · 17:13R. Guliak1.8381161222V. Bosak1.831141110113LOct 3 · 16:30R. Guliak3.0011115183V. Bosak1.367711161WOct 3 · 15:30V. Bosak3.5011116143R. Adam1.286911121
M. Jasek10
LOct 11 · 21:01F. Zurek1.201111113M. Jasek4.331770LOct 11 · 19:30M. Jasek1.5781111111R. Guliak2.2511138133LOct 11 · 18:30F. Zurek1.571112113M. Jasek2.2591050WOct 8 · 20:59M. Jasek1.617111111113R. Guliak2.2011134582WOct 8 · 20:30M. Jasek2.10116119113P. Hanel1.6731191142LOct 8 · 19:00M. Jasek1.30118861A. Schneeberger3.1561111113WOct 8 · 18:00R. Guliak2.381111871M. Jasek1.5313811113WOct 6 · 21:28M. Jasek1.671111113R. Guliak2.106580LOct 6 · 20:30I. Taichman1.5711119113M. Jasek2.25781161WOct 6 · 19:30M. Jasek2.381111113M. Kowolowski1.535680
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