TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Jasek vs Patrik Hanel 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113611119911114
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timePatrik Hanel to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Jasek above · Patrik Hanel below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 86 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Patrik Hanel at 56.2%
86 points played in total.
H2H Milan Jasek 3–2 Patrik Hanel Patrik Hanel has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2956.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Hanel
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jasek 1416 vs Hanel 1513
Hanel
Wrong
both rated, 96 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jasek 60% vs Hanel 80%
Hanel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jasek 60% vs Hanel 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jasek -1 · Hanel +3
Hanel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Hanel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hanel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJasek 2.10 / Hanel 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Hanel)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13259570
Jasek2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 18 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back18% 6 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Hanel1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 33 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it74% 20 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeJasek3wins
AwayHanel2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderJasek leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJasekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHanel66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jasek2Hanel3n = 5Hanel took 3 of 5
S2Jasek3Hanel2n = 5Jasek took 3 of 5
S3Jasek2Hanel3n = 5Hanel took 3 of 5
S4Jasek2Hanel3n = 5Hanel took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricJasekHanelJ − HBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match45.644.8+0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJasekHanelBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 266 vs 68 / 13448.1%50.8%128 / 266 vs 68 / 134Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HanelJasek 2.10/Hanel 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Hanel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJun 27 · 12:30M. Jasek4891910101P. Hanel52111712123
LJun 12 · 21:30M. Jasek35861471P. Hanel45111112113
WJun 12 · 18:00M. Jasek51911911113P. Hanel4511911682
WJun 8 · 19:30M. Jasek4311118133P. Hanel369511111
WMay 31 · 10:30M. Jasek511110118113P. Hanel4681271182
M. Jasek10
WOct 8 · 20:59M. Jasek1.617111111113R. Guliak2.2011134582LOct 8 · 19:00M. Jasek1.30118861A. Schneeberger3.1561111113WOct 8 · 18:00R. Guliak2.381111871M. Jasek1.5313811113WOct 6 · 21:28M. Jasek1.671111113R. Guliak2.106580LOct 6 · 20:30I. Taichman1.5711119113M. Jasek2.25781161WOct 6 · 19:30M. Jasek2.381111113M. Kowolowski1.535680WOct 6 · 18:30R. Guliak1.91119861M. Jasek1.8081111113WSep 27 · 12:59D. Priesol3.2510870M. Jasek1.331211113LSep 27 · 12:00F. Zurek1.6111611113M. Jasek2.20511661LSep 27 · 11:00T. Hrabec1.831111103M. Jasek1.838860
P. Hanel10
WOct 8 · 19:30P. Hanel1.331111113R. Guliak3.259560WOct 8 · 18:29A. Schneeberger3.75117981P. Hanel1.2571111113WOct 5 · 21:30P. Hanel1.3651111113R. Guliak3.00119921LOct 5 · 20:30I. Taichman1.7811118113P. Hanel1.92671181WOct 5 · 19:30P. Hanel1.5091111113R. Guliak2.50116941WOct 5 · 18:30F. Zurek2.2574100P. Hanel1.571111123LOct 3 · 12:58M. Kowolowski3.001111113P. Hanel1.367700WOct 3 · 12:30P. Hanel1.4461211113M. Kowolowski2.631110951LOct 3 · 11:00P. Hanel1.8398150P. Bajtek1.831111173LOct 3 · 10:00P. Osvald1.7371111113P. Hanel2.00116861
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