TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Arsenii Lobanov vs Ivan Efimenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119511311––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:56 and never touched: 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeIvan Efimenko to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArsenii Lobanov above · Ivan Efimenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 68 set 4, 3-11 · our read held Ivan Efimenko at 72.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Arsenii Lobanov 0–1 Ivan Efimenko Arsenii Lobanov has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5672.3%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 4.6pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Efimenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lobanov 1591 vs Efimenko 1703
Efimenko
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobanov 60% vs Efimenko 80%
Efimenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobanov 30% vs Efimenko 90%
Efimenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobanov -1 · Efimenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Efimenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobanov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobanov 3.40 / Efimenko 1.30
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Efimenko)-4.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270897
Lobanov3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Efimenko1.30
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 23 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLobanov0wins
AwayEfimenko1wins
Efimenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricLobanovEfimenkoL − EBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match19.036.0−17.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobanovEfimenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 129 vs 30 / 4851.9%62.5%67 / 129 vs 30 / 48Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
EfimenkoLobanov 3.40/Efimenko 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Efimenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Efimenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 3 · 10:30A. Lobanov1912430I. Efimenko361411113
A. Lobanov10
LOct 10 · 09:35A. Lobanov2.3811481192O. Tymofeev1.53711114113WOct 10 · 08:05A. Lobanov1.53101112133A. Troyan2.3812710111WOct 10 · 06:35A. Lobanov1.5712911163V. Bilobrov2.2510118141WOct 10 · 05:05A. Lobanov1.731111113Y. Kovshun2.009890LOct 3 · 10:30A. Lobanov1.9112430I. Efimenko1.801411113LOct 3 · 09:00A. Lobanov1.5312116882V. Bilobrov2.381031111113LOct 3 · 07:30A. Lobanov2.0061050O. Tymofeev1.731112113LOct 3 · 06:00A. Lobanov1.80101880V. Kryvenko1.911220113LOct 3 · 04:30A. Lobanov1.6171111962Y. Kovshun2.20113811113LAug 23 · 11:30A. Droshchynskyi1.83117411113A. Lobanov1.8371111722
I. Efimenko10
LOct 10 · 10:05I. Efimenko1.5313811131A. Troyan2.3815118153WOct 10 · 09:05I. Efimenko1.2891111113Y. Kovshun3.50118851WOct 10 · 07:35I. Efimenko1.4011611113O. Tymofeev2.75511661WOct 10 · 05:35I. Efimenko1.251511113V. Bilobrov3.7513360WOct 3 · 10:30A. Lobanov1.9112430I. Efimenko1.801411113WOct 3 · 09:30I. Efimenko1.6791111133O. Tymofeev2.101155111WOct 3 · 08:30I. Efimenko1.571111123Y. Kovshun2.2522100WOct 3 · 07:00I. Efimenko1.251111113V. Bilobrov3.757980WOct 3 · 05:00I. Efimenko1.4411118113V. Kryvenko2.63571161LSep 30 · 17:10I. Efimenko1.257514130D. Habrelyan3.75111112110
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