TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Efimenko vs Daniil Habrelyan · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30No result
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Stopped here
2 – 2
Sets
71151114121311––
Not completed. This is where it stopped.
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and a match that never finished
Frozen 17:07Ivan Efimenko to win
75.0%
75.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. This match has no result to grade it against.
Pick
NoneThe pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:0775.0%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 5.0pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Efimenko
Not yet
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Efimenko 1617 vs Habrelyan 1584
Efimenko
Not yet
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Efimenko 20% vs Habrelyan 40%
Habrelyan
Not yet
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Efimenko 50% vs Habrelyan 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Efimenko +1 · Habrelyan +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Efimenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEfimenko 1.25 / Habrelyan 3.75
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Efimenko)-5.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219078
Efimenko1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 17 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Habrelyan3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 28 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricEfimenkoHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 39 vs 184 / 39556.4%46.6%22 / 39 vs 184 / 395Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
Efimenko 1.25/Habrelyan 3.75
Not settled
What we said
75%
Efimenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–0
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
I. Efimenko10
WSep 30 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn2.25119861I. Efimenko1.5791111113LSep 30 · 14:10I. Efimenko1.73611751Y. Holoborodko2.0011611113LSep 30 · 13:10V. Merzlikin2.63661111113I. Efimenko1.4411112562LSep 30 · 11:40I. Efimenko1.837119111M. Tiutiunnyk1.8311211133LSep 26 · 11:05Y. Volkov1.831111183I. Efimenko1.8346160WSep 26 · 10:05I. Efimenko1.6171111113V. Vietrov2.20118491LSep 26 · 09:05I. Efimenko1.33981581A. Troyan3.25111113113WSep 26 · 07:35I. Efimenko1.44111198113D. Khairov2.6397111192WSep 26 · 05:35I. Efimenko1.611111113Y. Kovshun2.208970WSep 19 · 11:05Y. Volkov1.80119116122I. Efimenko1.91911811143
D. Habrelyan10
WSep 30 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.6311812972D. Habrelyan1.449111011113LSep 30 · 14:40V. Merzlikin1.502111411113D. Habrelyan2.50119121392WSep 30 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.67811131262D. Habrelyan2.101181510113LSep 30 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113D. Habrelyan2.759850LSep 23 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571191111113D. Habrelyan2.2513119752WSep 23 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.634111111102D. Habrelyan1.44117137123WSep 23 · 14:40O. Zhyrnov1.5058111172D. Habrelyan2.50111186113WSep 23 · 12:40O. Blashkun1.674118101D. Habrelyan2.1011211123LSep 23 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.441111113D. Habrelyan2.639960LSep 16 · 17:10V. Merzlikin1.53111110113D. Habrelyan2.38491241
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