TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykhailo Senyk vs Oleksandr Bolnyh 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118151381171175
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:46 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Bolnyh to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Senyk above · Oleksandr Bolnyh below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 84 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Oleksandr Bolnyh at 64.5%
84 points drawn · the score is 12 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Mykhailo Senyk 18–17 Oleksandr Bolnyh Oleksandr Bolnyh has won 17 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4664.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Bolnyh
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-17 in 35
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Senyk 690 vs Bolnyh 755
Bolnyh
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Senyk 60% vs Bolnyh 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Senyk 40% vs Bolnyh 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Senyk -2 · Bolnyh +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Bolnyh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSenyk 2.625 / Bolnyh 1.444
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Bolnyh)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270742
Senyk2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Oct 03) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog19% won 21 of 113
Down 0–1, comes back5% 4 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 52
Bolnyh1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 47 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it81% 38 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSenyk3wins
AwayBolnyh7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBolnyh leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSenyk75%3 of 4
AwayBolnyh100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Senyk4Bolnyh6n = 10Bolnyh took 6 of 10
S2Senyk6Bolnyh4n = 10Senyk took 6 of 10
S3Senyk5Bolnyh5n = 10split evenly
S4Senyk2Bolnyh6n = 8Bolnyh took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSenykBolnyhS − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.540.3−3.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSenykBolnyhBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 363 vs 95 / 21343%44.6%156 / 363 vs 95 / 213Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BolnyhSenyk 2.63/Bolnyh 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Bolnyh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Senyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 05:25M. Senyk3711114113O. Bolnyh37991181
LOct 1 · 15:25M. Senyk5091511872O. Bolnyh551113911113
LSep 19 · 07:55M. Senyk385149101O. Bolnyh46111211123
LSep 18 · 14:55M. Senyk2789100O. Bolnyh341111123
LSep 5 · 06:25M. Senyk33771181O. Bolnyh3911116113
LAug 13 · 11:25M. Senyk351161081O. Bolnyh3841112113
LAug 12 · 12:55M. Senyk34714581O. Bolnyh45111211113
WAug 7 · 05:55M. Senyk331111113O. Bolnyh215790
WAug 6 · 05:25M. Senyk4211812113O. Bolnyh399111091
LAug 5 · 13:25M. Senyk3621111662O. Bolnyh49119711113
M. Senyk10
WOct 10 · 12:55V. Sydorchuk2.2566120M. Senyk1.571111122LOct 3 · 10:55M. Senyk5.506630V. Slobodian1.131111113LOct 3 · 08:55M. Kornijchuk4.001111113M. Senyk1.228970WOct 3 · 07:53M. Senyk1.531311113O. Kundeus2.3811980WOct 3 · 06:55V. Sydorchuk2.20611461M. Senyk1.6111911113WOct 3 · 05:25M. Senyk2.6311114113O. Bolnyh1.44991181LOct 1 · 18:25M. Senyk4.50611491P. Melnichuk1.1711711113LOct 1 · 16:25O. Martynenko1.1711611113M. Senyk4.50911861LOct 1 · 15:25M. Senyk2.7591511872O. Bolnyh1.401113911113WOct 1 · 14:25I. Fokin1.2071116592M. Senyk4.331181411113
O. Bolnyh10
WOct 10 · 11:55A. Lanchut7.50911481O. Bolnyh1.0711811113WOct 3 · 11:25O. Bolnyh1.361011911113O. Kundeus3.0012211542LOct 3 · 09:25V. Sydorchuk2.1011711113O. Bolnyh1.67811851WOct 3 · 07:25M. Kornijchuk7.00611651O. Bolnyh1.0811411113LOct 3 · 06:25O. Bolnyh2.636980V. Slobodian1.441111113LOct 3 · 05:25M. Senyk2.6311114113O. Bolnyh1.44991181LOct 2 · 11:25I. Fokin1.2011158113O. Bolnyh4.339131141WOct 2 · 09:55O. Bolnyh5.00911119113Y. Shcherbak1.1411891172LOct 2 · 07:55P. Melnichuk1.8311811113O. Bolnyh1.83711531WOct 1 · 15:25M. Senyk2.7591511872O. Bolnyh1.401113911113
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