TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Tomasz Filbrandt vs Dawid Kotwica 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 2 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115811311115119
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:03 and never touched: 89.2% is still 89.2%
Graded at full timeTomasz Filbrandt to win
89.2%
89.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
115811311115119
H2H Tomasz Filbrandt 17–2 Dawid Kotwica Dawid Kotwica has won 2 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:0389.2%Our read90.1%to break even at 1.11
short by 0.9pp90.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.11 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (85%)
Filbrandt
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-2 in 19
Filbrandt
Correct
gap of 15 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filbrandt 1657 vs Kotwica 1275
Filbrandt
Correct
both rated, 383 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filbrandt 80% vs Kotwica 20%
Filbrandt
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filbrandt 90% vs Kotwica 20%
Filbrandt
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Filbrandt +1 · Kotwica -4
Kotwica
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% · Strong (leans Filbrandt) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filbrandt form (80%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilbrandt 1.11 / Kotwica 6.50
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Filbrandt)-0.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13270279
Filbrandt1.11
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite65% won 128 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it78% 88 of 113
Kotwica6.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 123 of 347
Down 0–1, comes back19% 39 of 201
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilbrandt10wins
AwayKotwica0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFilbrandt leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilbrandt100%9 of 9
AwayKotwican = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filbrandt9Kotwica1n = 10Filbrandt took 9 of 10
S2Filbrandt8Kotwica2n = 10Filbrandt took 8 of 10
S3Filbrandt9Kotwica1n = 10Filbrandt took 9 of 10
S4Filbrandt3Kotwica0n = 3Filbrandt took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilbrandtKotwicaF − KBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match36.620.7+15.9per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilbrandtKotwicaBasisWin rate · lifetime633 / 1197 vs 612 / 150952.9%40.6%633 / 1197 vs 612 / 1509Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.335.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FilbrandtFilbrandt 1.11/Kotwica 6.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89.2%
Filbrandt · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Filbrandt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 18:55T. Filbrandt331111113D. Kotwica82240
WSep 2 · 18:30T. Filbrandt331111113D. Kotwica219570
WJul 27 · 23:50T. Filbrandt331111113D. Kotwica153660
WJul 27 · 21:30T. Filbrandt331111113D. Kotwica143560
WJul 9 · 15:25T. Filbrandt501011711113D. Kotwica4112811282
WJul 2 · 18:55T. Filbrandt331111113D. Kotwica218580
WJun 10 · 18:55T. Filbrandt4211911113D. Kotwica35611991
WMay 27 · 16:35T. Filbrandt331111113D. Kotwica123270
WMay 5 · 11:25T. Filbrandt43111011113D. Kotwica28612731
WMay 5 · 07:20T. Filbrandt331111113D. Kotwica124620
T. Filbrandt10
WOct 10 · 18:30D. Solilo2.40411951T. Filbrandt1.5011911113LOct 10 · 17:45M. Marchlewski2.25911511113T. Filbrandt1.5711711652WOct 10 · 16:55T. Filbrandt1.061113123D. Poloszczanski7.20911100WOct 10 · 15:50T. Filbrandt1.36116611113M. Kukawka2.9061111692WOct 10 · 14:35T. Filbrandt1.2691111113T. Piotrowski3.50118541WOct 10 · 13:00T. Filbrandt1.251111113B. Mleczko3.653750WOct 10 · 11:45T. Filbrandt1.26111189113M. Minda3.4597111152WOct 10 · 10:05T. Filbrandt1.461111113J. Lamperski2.509860WOct 10 · 09:00T. Filbrandt1.58118911113K. Kostyk2.2521111442WOct 9 · 21:00J. Wozniak3.5089110T. Filbrandt1.281111133
D. Kotwica10
LOct 10 · 21:05D. Kotwica4.806250M. Marchlewski1.171111113LOct 10 · 19:20D. Poloszczanski2.2511911113D. Kotwica1.57811461LOct 10 · 17:20D. Solilo1.301211113D. Kotwica3.1510560LOct 10 · 16:35M. Kukawka1.501111710113D. Kotwica2.4089111252LOct 10 · 15:00M. Marchlewski1.251111113D. Kotwica3.506780WOct 1 · 00:35J. Lamperski1.58911581D. Kotwica2.2511411113LSep 30 · 22:55D. Poloszczanski1.801111108113D. Kotwica1.9189121192LSep 30 · 22:15M. Kowalczyk2.0571114143D. Kotwica1.7011812121WSep 30 · 21:30K. Klocek1.788350D. Kotwica1.931111113LSep 30 · 20:05D. Kotwica2.0561090D. Poloszczanski1.701112113
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