TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Kotwica vs Marcin Marchlewski 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 2 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611211511––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched: 86.2% is still 86.2%
Graded at full timeMarcin Marchlewski to win
86.2%
86.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
46 points played in total.
Set by set
611211511––––
H2H Dawid Kotwica 2–14 Marcin Marchlewski Dawid Kotwica has won 2 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Marchlewski beat Kotwica 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:0486.2%Our read85.5%to break even at 1.17
clears by 0.7pp85.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.17 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (80%)
Marchlewski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-14 in 16
Marchlewski
Correct
gap of 12 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotwica 1272 vs Marchlewski 1582
Marchlewski
Correct
both rated, 310 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotwica 0% vs Marchlewski 80%
Marchlewski
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotwica 20% vs Marchlewski 70%
Marchlewski
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotwica -5 · Marchlewski +1
Kotwica
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% · Strong (leans Marchlewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotwica form (0%) is below what odds imply (21%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotwica 4.80 / Marchlewski 1.17
Signal prob.14% / 86%
Edge (Marchlewski)+0.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13270277
Kotwica4.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 123 of 347
Down 0–1, comes back19% 39 of 201
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 125
Marchlewski1.17
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 102 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it98% 43 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it83% 79 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotwica2wins
AwayMarchlewski8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarchlewski leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotwica66.7%2 of 3
AwayMarchlewski100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotwica3Marchlewski7n = 10Marchlewski took 7 of 10
S2Kotwica6Marchlewski4n = 10Kotwica took 6 of 10
S3Kotwica3Marchlewski7n = 10Marchlewski took 7 of 10
S4Kotwica1Marchlewski6n = 7Marchlewski took 6 of 7
S5Kotwica1Marchlewski2n = 3Marchlewski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotwicaMarchlewskiK − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.441.0−7.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotwicaMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime612 / 1510 vs 457 / 93140.5%49.1%612 / 1510 vs 457 / 931Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MarchlewskiKotwica 4.80/Marchlewski 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.2%
Marchlewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 15:00D. Kotwica216780M. Marchlewski331111113
LJun 5 · 16:55D. Kotwica346126101M. Marchlewski44111011123
LOct 11 · 00:35D. Kotwica27721171M. Marchlewski4211119113
LOct 10 · 22:10D. Kotwica51915111152M. Marchlewski571113913113
LAug 1 · 18:10D. Kotwica159420M. Marchlewski331111113
LJul 5 · 19:00D. Kotwica4411119672M. Marchlewski48781111113
WApr 19 · 14:25D. Kotwica331111113M. Marchlewski248880
WApr 5 · 17:25D. Kotwica44116511113M. Marchlewski4471111782
LMar 23 · 10:55D. Kotwica378111081M. Marchlewski4311912113
LFeb 16 · 01:15D. Kotwica28411761M. Marchlewski4211911113
D. Kotwica10
LOct 10 · 20:05T. Filbrandt1.11118311113D. Kotwica6.5051111592LOct 10 · 19:20D. Poloszczanski2.2511911113D. Kotwica1.57811461LOct 10 · 17:20D. Solilo1.301211113D. Kotwica3.1510560LOct 10 · 16:35M. Kukawka1.501111710113D. Kotwica2.4089111252LOct 10 · 15:00M. Marchlewski1.251111113D. Kotwica3.506780WOct 1 · 00:35J. Lamperski1.58911581D. Kotwica2.2511411113LSep 30 · 22:55D. Poloszczanski1.801111108113D. Kotwica1.9189121192LSep 30 · 22:15M. Kowalczyk2.0571114143D. Kotwica1.7011812121WSep 30 · 21:30K. Klocek1.788350D. Kotwica1.931111113LSep 30 · 20:05D. Kotwica2.0561090D. Poloszczanski1.701112113
M. Marchlewski10
WOct 10 · 20:30M. Marchlewski1.121111113D. Poloszczanski5.284570LOct 10 · 18:55M. Marchlewski1.5411118942M. Kukawka2.25661111113WOct 10 · 17:45M. Marchlewski2.25911511113T. Filbrandt1.5711711652WOct 10 · 16:15M. Marchlewski1.7511119113D. Solilo1.98561131WOct 10 · 15:00M. Marchlewski1.251111113D. Kotwica3.506780WOct 10 · 01:30J. Wozniak3.758970M. Marchlewski1.251111113LOct 9 · 23:55M. Kolek1.7311116113M. Marchlewski2.00591151LOct 9 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.7371111113M. Marchlewski2.00117531WOct 9 · 22:30K. Rudomina2.3891121192M. Marchlewski1.53116119113WOct 9 · 21:20M. Marchlewski2.0011117113M. Kolek1.73781151
Upcoming Matches
D. Kotwica
Nothing scheduled
M. Marchlewski
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