TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Marchlewski vs Tomasz Filbrandt 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 2 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911117511116115
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:34 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeTomasz Filbrandt to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
911117511116115
H2H Marcin Marchlewski 28–31 Tomasz Filbrandt Marcin Marchlewski has won 28 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3459.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.57
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.57 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Filbrandt
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
28-31 in 59
Filbrandt
Wrong
gap of 3 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1581 vs Filbrandt 1665
Filbrandt
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 60% vs Filbrandt 100%
Filbrandt
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 70% vs Filbrandt 90%
Filbrandt
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +3 · Filbrandt +8
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Filbrandt) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filbrandt form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 2.25 / Filbrandt 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Filbrandt)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13270282
Marchlewski2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 66 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back19% 20 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 57
Filbrandt1.57
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 128 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it78% 88 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski3wins
AwayFilbrandt7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFilbrandt leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski50%2 of 4
AwayFilbrandt83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski4Filbrandt6n = 10Filbrandt took 6 of 10
S2Marchlewski5Filbrandt5n = 10split evenly
S3Marchlewski3Filbrandt7n = 10Filbrandt took 7 of 10
S4Marchlewski5Filbrandt4n = 9Marchlewski took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiFilbrandtM − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.839.0−4.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiFilbrandtBasisWin rate · lifetime458 / 932 vs 632 / 119549.1%52.9%458 / 932 vs 632 / 1195Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FilbrandtMarchlewski 2.25/Filbrandt 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Filbrandt · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 16:55M. Marchlewski3611113113T. Filbrandt32751191
LSep 12 · 23:20M. Marchlewski32118581T. Filbrandt3961111113
LSep 12 · 20:30M. Marchlewski197570T. Filbrandt331111113
LSep 11 · 23:15M. Marchlewski29511941T. Filbrandt4211911113
LSep 11 · 18:05M. Marchlewski31311891T. Filbrandt4211911113
LAug 7 · 16:55M. Marchlewski4093111162T. Filbrandt50111189113
LAug 2 · 23:20M. Marchlewski471011511102T. Filbrandt41124112123
WAug 2 · 20:30M. Marchlewski4291111113T. Filbrandt31117761
LJul 25 · 23:35M. Marchlewski30115681T. Filbrandt4291111113
WJul 25 · 21:20M. Marchlewski4211911113T. Filbrandt38911991
M. Marchlewski10
WOct 10 · 16:15M. Marchlewski1.7511119113D. Solilo1.98561131WOct 10 · 15:00M. Marchlewski1.251111113D. Kotwica3.506780WOct 10 · 01:30J. Wozniak3.758970M. Marchlewski1.251111113LOct 9 · 23:55M. Kolek1.7311116113M. Marchlewski2.00591151LOct 9 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.7371111113M. Marchlewski2.00117531WOct 9 · 22:30K. Rudomina2.3891121192M. Marchlewski1.53116119113WOct 9 · 21:20M. Marchlewski2.0011117113M. Kolek1.73781151WOct 9 · 19:40J. Wozniak4.3310890M. Marchlewski1.201211113LOct 9 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.731111113M. Marchlewski2.006840WOct 9 · 18:05M. Marchlewski1.509111111113K. Rudomina2.5011813522
T. Filbrandt10
WOct 10 · 16:55T. Filbrandt1.061113123D. Poloszczanski7.20911100WOct 10 · 15:50T. Filbrandt1.36116611113M. Kukawka2.9061111692WOct 10 · 14:35T. Filbrandt1.2691111113T. Piotrowski3.50118541WOct 10 · 13:00T. Filbrandt1.251111113B. Mleczko3.653750WOct 10 · 11:45T. Filbrandt1.26111189113M. Minda3.4597111152WOct 10 · 10:05T. Filbrandt1.461111113J. Lamperski2.509860WOct 10 · 09:00T. Filbrandt1.58118911113K. Kostyk2.2521111442WOct 9 · 21:00J. Wozniak3.5089110T. Filbrandt1.281111133LOct 9 · 20:05K. Staszczyk1.73116113113T. Filbrandt2.0061131182WOct 9 · 19:15T. Filbrandt1.3311712113K. Rudomina3.258111091
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