TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Marchlewski vs Milosz Kukawka 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 2 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116116811911411
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched: 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timeMarcin Marchlewski to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
116116811911411
H2H Marcin Marchlewski 1–0 Milosz Kukawka Milosz Kukawka has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5462.2%Our read64.9%to break even at 1.54
short by 2.7pp64.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.54 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Marchlewski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1596 vs Kukawka 1442
Marchlewski
Wrong
both rated, 154 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 80% vs Kukawka 60%
Marchlewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 70% vs Kukawka 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +4 · Kukawka +2
Marchlewski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Marchlewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kukawka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 1.54 / Kukawka 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Marchlewski)-2.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13270280
Marchlewski1.54
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 102 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it98% 43 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it83% 79 of 95
Kukawka2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 49 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back30% 18 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back12% 4 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMarchlewski1wins
AwayKukawka0wins
Marchlewski leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMarchlewskiKukawkaM − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match39.036.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiKukawkaBasisWin rate · lifetime458 / 932 vs 533 / 86249.1%61.8%458 / 932 vs 533 / 862Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MarchlewskiMarchlewski 1.54/Kukawka 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.2%
Marchlewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kukawka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJun 26 · 21:20M. Marchlewski3911115123M. Kukawka368711101
M. Marchlewski10
WOct 10 · 17:45M. Marchlewski2.25911511113T. Filbrandt1.5711711652WOct 10 · 16:15M. Marchlewski1.7511119113D. Solilo1.98561131WOct 10 · 15:00M. Marchlewski1.251111113D. Kotwica3.506780WOct 10 · 01:30J. Wozniak3.758970M. Marchlewski1.251111113LOct 9 · 23:55M. Kolek1.7311116113M. Marchlewski2.00591151LOct 9 · 23:15K. Staszczyk1.7371111113M. Marchlewski2.00117531WOct 9 · 22:30K. Rudomina2.3891121192M. Marchlewski1.53116119113WOct 9 · 21:20M. Marchlewski2.0011117113M. Kolek1.73781151WOct 9 · 19:40J. Wozniak4.3310890M. Marchlewski1.201211113LOct 9 · 18:50K. Staszczyk1.731111113M. Marchlewski2.006840
M. Kukawka10
WOct 10 · 18:10M. Kukawka1.3712113113D. Poloszczanski2.801091161WOct 10 · 16:35M. Kukawka1.501111710113D. Kotwica2.4089111252LOct 10 · 15:50T. Filbrandt1.36116611113M. Kukawka2.9061111692LOct 10 · 13:55W. Iwasyszyn2.1011611113M. Kukawka1.66411781WOct 10 · 13:30M. Kukawka1.401113113A. Szoltysek2.7521150WOct 10 · 12:15J. Przewlocki3.0061115752M. Kukawka1.351181311113WOct 10 · 11:00I. Dabrowski2.10119431M. Kukawka1.6691111113WOct 10 · 09:25J. Rolak2.05118651M. Kukawka1.6571111113WOct 9 · 14:20M. Kukawka2.2511511113B. Sulkowski1.55611761LOct 9 · 12:40B. Czerwinski1.55111112113M. Kukawka2.30291461
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