TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ales Barton vs Frantisek Pusch 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA17 Hall · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
131111710121210––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:59 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeAles Barton to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Barton above · Frantisek Pusch below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 86 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Ales Barton at 61.7%
86 points played in total.
H2H Ales Barton 0–1 Frantisek Pusch Ales Barton has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5961.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 2.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Barton
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Barton 1774 vs Pusch 1720
Barton
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Barton 40% vs Pusch 60%
Pusch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Barton 60% vs Pusch 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Barton -2 · Pusch +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Barton) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pusch form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBarton 1.571 / Pusch 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Barton)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269267
Barton1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 80 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it86% 36 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it71% 56 of 79
Pusch2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 37 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back30% 12 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBarton0wins
AwayPusch1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderPusch leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricBartonPuschB − PBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Sweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartonPuschBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 432 vs 91 / 17052.1%53.5%225 / 432 vs 91 / 170Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BartonBarton 1.57/Pusch 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Barton · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Barton won
Recent Results
A. Barton10
LOct 10 · 09:00A. Barton1.5011990J. Louda2.501311113LOct 10 · 07:30J. Louda3.001312125123A. Barton1.3615101011102LOct 10 · 06:00A. Barton1.449127101R. Urbaniec2.63111011123WOct 8 · 17:30M. Jezek2.0071111732A. Barton1.73116611113WOct 8 · 16:30R. Urbaniec2.6395121382A. Barton1.4411111011113LOct 8 · 15:30A. Barton1.6712118972M. Jezek2.101071111113WOct 8 · 14:30V. Nohejl2.75971281A. Barton1.40111110113WOct 2 · 12:58A. Barton1.8011911113J. Simecek1.91411991WOct 2 · 12:30A. Barton1.83115911113J. Simecek1.8331111952LOct 2 · 11:00A. Barton3.503511111E. Mares1.2811119133
F. Pusch10
WOct 10 · 07:00R. Urbaniec1.57711761F. Pusch2.2511711113WOct 10 · 06:30F. Pusch1.73561111133J. Louda2.00111149112LSep 29 · 17:01F. Pusch2.7586100R. Urbaniec1.401111123WSep 29 · 16:30J. Ruzicka1.91109111292F. Pusch1.801211410113LSep 29 · 15:30F. Pusch2.10761151O. Svacha1.6711118113LSep 29 · 14:30R. Urbaniec1.61131165113F. Pusch2.20118111172LSep 29 · 13:30J. Ruzicka1.911120113F. Pusch1.8071840LSep 29 · 12:30F. Pusch1.73116931J. Ruzicka2.0091111113WSep 29 · 11:00F. Pusch2.38119117113R. Urbaniec1.5371141142WSep 29 · 10:00O. Kolisnyk1.6171111872F. Pusch2.20119611113
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