TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viktor Slozka vs Avraham Nazrin 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611511116119811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:30 and never touched: 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeAvraham Nazrin to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingViktor Slozka above · Avraham Nazrin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 89 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Avraham Nazrin at 56.7%
89 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Slozka 2–5 Avraham Nazrin Viktor Slozka has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:3056.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 5.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Nazrin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Nazrin
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slozka 1680 vs Nazrin 1682
Nazrin
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slozka 40% vs Nazrin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slozka 50% vs Nazrin 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slozka -1 · Nazrin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Nazrin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nazrin form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlozka 2.20 / Nazrin 1.615
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Nazrin)-5.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13265822
Slozka2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 124 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back27% 34 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 76
Nazrin1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite45% won 9 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSlozka2wins
AwayNazrin5wins
2 of 7 to a deciderNazrin leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlozkan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNazrin80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slozka2Nazrin5n = 7Nazrin took 5 of 7
S2Slozka3Nazrin4n = 7Nazrin took 4 of 7
S3Slozka3Nazrin4n = 7Nazrin took 4 of 7
S4Slozka2Nazrin3n = 5Nazrin took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricSlozkaNazrinS − NBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match33.638.3−4.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlozkaNazrinBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 863 vs 27 / 5146.1%52.9%398 / 863 vs 27 / 51Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NazrinSlozka 2.20/Nazrin 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.7%
Nazrin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nazrin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LOct 9 · 07:35V. Slozka4165111182A. Nazrin48111169113
LOct 8 · 12:05V. Slozka2696110A. Nazrin351111133
WOct 2 · 11:05V. Slozka331111113A. Nazrin279990
WSep 25 · 05:35V. Slozka43511511113A. Nazrin4011911362
LSep 24 · 13:35V. Slozka26114381A. Nazrin3741111113
LJul 31 · 11:05V. Slozka36911791A. Nazrin3911611113
LJul 30 · 13:05V. Slozka30651181A. Nazrin4211119113
V. Slozka10
LOct 9 · 09:05V. Slozka1.83511101342V. Kaidakov1.831181211113LOct 9 · 06:05V. Slozka1.44111111892Y. Vorsuliak2.63136311113WOct 9 · 04:35V. Slozka1.801381111113O. Rodin1.9115114872WOct 8 · 18:05V. Slozka2.2511119113M. Loboda1.57891181LOct 8 · 16:35V. Slozka1.40191183102Y. Vorsuliak2.751781111123LOct 8 · 15:05V. Slozka1.839330V. Kaidakov1.831111113WOct 8 · 13:35V. Slozka1.83611613113O. Rodin1.83115111152LOct 8 · 12:05V. Slozka1.9196110A. Nazrin1.801111133LOct 8 · 03:00O. Rodin1.8391111113V. Slozka1.83115981WOct 8 · 01:30V. Slozka1.4061111113Y. Vorsuliak2.75118781
A. Nazrin10
LOct 9 · 09:35M. Loboda1.611511113A. Nazrin2.2013990WOct 9 · 06:35A. Nazrin2.00811711113O. Rodin1.7311411392LOct 9 · 05:35V. Kaidakov1.73119119113A. Nazrin2.0051171162WOct 8 · 18:35Y. Vorsuliak2.201011101162A. Nazrin1.61125126113LOct 8 · 17:35O. Rodin2.101111113A. Nazrin1.677570LOct 8 · 16:05M. Loboda2.101111113A. Nazrin1.677670LOct 8 · 14:05V. Kaidakov2.1011114113A. Nazrin1.67461161WOct 8 · 12:05V. Slozka1.9196110A. Nazrin1.801111133LOct 2 · 11:05A. Nazrin1.619990V. Slozka2.201111113LOct 2 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.401111113A. Nazrin2.757680
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