TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Novak vs Miroslav Novotny 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
121412141171311113
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:36 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Novak to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Martin Novak @ 1.67 · Won
How it is goingMartin Novak above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 108 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Martin Novak at 55.8%
108 points played in total.
The pick
Sealed 01:36Sent to Pro: Martin Novak @ 1.67 · Won
55.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Novak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Novak 1430 vs Novotny 1337
Novak
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 60% vs Novotny 20%
Novak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 60% vs Novotny 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak +3 · Novotny -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Novak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.666 / Novotny 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Novak)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264789
Novak1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 27 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Novotny2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 16 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 78 vs 164 / 34860.3%47.1%47 / 78 vs 164 / 348Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
Forecastthe model predicts this market
Match Winner
NovakNovak 1.67/Novotny 2.10
Hit
What we said
55.8%
Novak · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Martin Novak @ 1.67 · Won
What happened
3–2
Novak won
Handicap · Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Novak10
WOct 10 · 01:00M. Novak1.611111113M. Necas2.204480WOct 10 · 00:00M. Stefek1.501111412112M. Novak2.50781114133WOct 9 · 22:30R. Urban1.4446111142M. Novak2.63111153113LOct 1 · 02:30M. Stefek1.671311113M. Novak2.1011950LOct 1 · 01:00J. Framberk2.5012118113M. Novak1.501091121WSep 30 · 23:30M. Novak1.808131011113J. Briska1.91111112692LSep 30 · 22:00M. Novak1.80581181V. Dolezal1.9111115113LSep 25 · 03:30M. Stefek1.771411113M. Novak1.9312960WSep 25 · 01:30M. Novak2.00148711113M. Stefek1.73121111982WSep 25 · 00:30A. Schneeberger2.0010690M. Novak1.731211113
M. Novotny10
LOct 10 · 00:30M. Novotny3.2576110R. Urban1.331111133LOct 9 · 23:00M. Novotny2.10691191M. Stefek1.6711117113LOct 9 · 22:00M. Necas1.307111412113M. Novotny3.40115121432WOct 5 · 21:00M. Novotny1.251051111123M. Barta3.75121143102LOct 5 · 20:00P. Bruzek2.101111137113M. Novotny1.6771151132WOct 5 · 19:00M. Barta2.756440M. Novotny1.401111113LOct 5 · 18:30M. Novotny3.0012860M. Necas1.361411113WOct 3 · 21:30P. Berdych2.454670M. Novotny1.481111113WOct 3 · 20:00M. Syroha2.20411711112M. Novotny1.61115118133WOct 3 · 19:00P. Berdych2.7581151182M. Novotny1.40117118113
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