TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Bruzek vs Miroslav Novotny 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171111315711113
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:54 and never touched: 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Novotny to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Bruzek above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 90 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Miroslav Novotny at 57.8%
90 points played in total.
H2H Petr Bruzek 7–13 Miroslav Novotny Petr Bruzek has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5457.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-13 in 20
Novotny
Wrong
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bruzek 1315 vs Novotny 1369
Novotny
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bruzek 40% vs Novotny 80%
Novotny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bruzek 60% vs Novotny 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bruzek -1 · Novotny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Novotny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBruzek 2.10 / Novotny 1.666
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Novotny)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13244047
Bruzek2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 27 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Novotny1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 43 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it82% 23 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it74% 36 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBruzek4wins
AwayNovotny6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBruzek100%3 of 3
AwayNovotny85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bruzek3Novotny7n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S2Bruzek6Novotny4n = 10Bruzek took 6 of 10
S3Bruzek5Novotny5n = 10split evenly
S4Bruzek5Novotny1n = 6Bruzek took 5 of 6
S5Bruzek0Novotny3n = 3Novotny took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBruzekNovotnyB − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.638.0−2.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBruzekNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 391 vs 163 / 34345%47.5%176 / 391 vs 163 / 343Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyBruzek 2.10/Novotny 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.8%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bruzek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 21:30P. Bruzek47111251182M. Novotny531310118113
LSep 30 · 18:30P. Bruzek32613761M. Novotny44111111113
WSep 25 · 22:00P. Bruzek331111113M. Novotny259880
LSep 14 · 21:00P. Bruzek3928111172M. Novotny45111166113
WSep 14 · 18:00P. Bruzek4181111113M. Novotny32115791
WAug 7 · 18:30P. Bruzek351111133M. Novotny2889110
LFeb 23 · 23:30P. Bruzek2210570M. Novotny341211113
LJan 6 · 02:00P. Bruzek188370M. Novotny331111113
LDec 29 · 04:00P. Bruzek46610111182M. Novotny50111288113
WDec 29 · 02:30P. Bruzek4311147113M. Novotny365121181
P. Bruzek10
LOct 5 · 19:30M. Necas1.4451211133P. Bruzek2.6311105111WOct 5 · 18:00P. Bruzek1.5791111113M. Barta2.25112481LSep 30 · 21:30M. Novotny1.651310118113P. Bruzek2.10111251182LSep 30 · 20:00M. Barta2.5071111113P. Bruzek1.50119891WSep 30 · 19:00P. Berdych3.009940P. Bruzek1.361111113LSep 30 · 18:30P. Bruzek1.44613761M. Novotny2.63111111113WSep 26 · 03:30P. Bruzek1.32126115113P. Berdych2.95101151182WSep 26 · 02:30J. Pelikan2.207670P. Bruzek1.611111113WSep 26 · 01:00P. Berdych2.507650P. Bruzek1.501111113WSep 25 · 23:30P. Bruzek3.0011116113A. Schneeberger1.36551121
M. Novotny10
WOct 5 · 19:00M. Barta2.756440M. Novotny1.401111113LOct 5 · 18:30M. Novotny3.0012860M. Necas1.361411113WOct 3 · 21:30P. Berdych2.454670M. Novotny1.481111113WOct 3 · 20:00M. Syroha2.20411711112M. Novotny1.61115118133WOct 3 · 19:00P. Berdych2.7581151182M. Novotny1.40117118113LOct 3 · 18:30M. Novotny1.6791111382V. Hruska Sr2.10119811113WOct 2 · 17:30M. Vilhan1.73116100M. Novotny2.001311123WOct 2 · 16:30M. Novotny1.501111113M. Barta2.508280WSep 30 · 21:30M. Novotny1.651310118113P. Bruzek2.10111251182WSep 30 · 18:30P. Bruzek1.44613761M. Novotny2.63111111113
Upcoming Matches
P. Bruzek
M. Novotny
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.