TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Miroslav Novotny vs Petr Bruzek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13111012115811118
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched: 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Novotny to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Novotny above · Petr Bruzek below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 100 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Miroslav Novotny at 56.8%
100 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Novotny 12–7 Petr Bruzek Petr Bruzek has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Novotny beat Bruzek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2856.8%Our read60.6%to break even at 1.65
short by 3.8pp60.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.65 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-7 in 19
Novotny
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1311 vs Bruzek 1323
Bruzek
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 100% vs Bruzek 60%
Novotny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 70% vs Bruzek 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +7 · Bruzek -1
Novotny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Novotny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bruzek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.65 / Bruzek 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Novotny)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13224518
Novotny1.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite51% won 36 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it68% 28 of 41
Bruzek2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog38% won 27 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny5wins
AwayBruzek5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny71.4%5 of 7
AwayBruzek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny7Bruzek3n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S2Novotny4Bruzek6n = 10Bruzek took 6 of 10
S3Novotny5Bruzek5n = 10split evenly
S4Novotny1Bruzek5n = 6Bruzek took 5 of 6
S5Novotny2Bruzek1n = 3Novotny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyBruzekN − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.735.8+0.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyBruzekBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 332 vs 175 / 38846.7%45.1%155 / 332 vs 175 / 388Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.735.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.65/Bruzek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 18:30M. Novotny44111111113P. Bruzek32613761
LSep 25 · 22:00M. Novotny259880P. Bruzek331111113
WSep 14 · 21:00M. Novotny45111166113P. Bruzek3928111172
LSep 14 · 18:00M. Novotny32115791P. Bruzek4181111113
LAug 7 · 18:30M. Novotny2889110P. Bruzek351111133
WFeb 23 · 23:30M. Novotny341211113P. Bruzek2210570
WJan 6 · 02:00M. Novotny331111113P. Bruzek188370
WDec 29 · 04:00M. Novotny50111288113P. Bruzek46610111182
LDec 29 · 02:30M. Novotny365121181P. Bruzek4311147113
LNov 21 · 23:30M. Novotny40126111012P. Bruzek491011512113
M. Novotny10
WSep 30 · 20:30P. Berdych2.105680M. Novotny1.671111113WSep 30 · 19:30M. Novotny1.6111118113M. Barta2.20571191WSep 30 · 18:30P. Bruzek1.44613761M. Novotny2.63111111113WSep 30 · 17:30M. Novotny1.30111011113J. Grohsgott3.10712651WSep 30 · 16:00J. Grohsgott3.006101171M. Novotny1.3611125113WSep 30 · 15:00M. Syroha1.8041111462M. Novotny1.91118811113WSep 30 · 14:30M. Novotny2.1013811113L. Havrda1.671111681LSep 26 · 02:00P. Berdych2.10581111113M. Novotny1.6711117782LSep 26 · 00:30M. Novotny2.251110111032A. Schneeberger1.57812812113LSep 25 · 23:00M. Novotny2.758111031J. Pelikan1.4011712113
P. Bruzek10
LSep 30 · 20:00M. Barta2.5071111113P. Bruzek1.50119891WSep 30 · 19:00P. Berdych3.009940P. Bruzek1.361111113LSep 30 · 18:30P. Bruzek1.44613761M. Novotny2.63111111113WSep 26 · 03:30P. Bruzek1.32126115113P. Berdych2.95101151182WSep 26 · 02:30J. Pelikan2.207670P. Bruzek1.611111113WSep 26 · 01:00P. Berdych2.507650P. Bruzek1.501111113WSep 25 · 23:30P. Bruzek3.0011116113A. Schneeberger1.36551121WSep 25 · 22:00P. Bruzek1.831111113M. Novotny1.839880WSep 23 · 03:00J. Grohsgott2.254830P. Bruzek1.581111113LSep 23 · 02:30P. Bruzek1.53121011982J. Pelikan2.381012911113
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