TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Miroslav Necas vs Petr Bruzek 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114112115––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:29 and never touched: 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Necas to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Necas above · Petr Bruzek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 44 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Miroslav Necas at 70.9%
44 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Necas 2–0 Petr Bruzek Petr Bruzek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Necas beat Bruzek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:2970.9%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 4.1pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Necas
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Necas 1398 vs Bruzek 1327
Necas
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Necas 60% vs Bruzek 40%
Necas
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Necas 50% vs Bruzek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Necas -1 · Bruzek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Necas) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Necas form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNecas 1.333 / Bruzek 3.25
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Necas)-4.1pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13251433
Necas1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 12 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Bruzek3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 27 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNecas2wins
AwayBruzek0wins
Necas leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home2
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricNecasBruzekN − BBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match39.535.5+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNecasBruzekBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 45 vs 177 / 39244.4%45.2%20 / 45 vs 177 / 392Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NecasNecas 1.33/Bruzek 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Necas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Necas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 5 · 19:30M. Necas4151211133P. Bruzek3711105111
WJul 12 · 06:30M. Necas3851111113P. Bruzek34118781
M. Necas10
WOct 6 · 02:58M. Necas1.6761111113T. Regner2.10119451WOct 6 · 01:30M. Necas1.9151211113T. Regner1.801110491WOct 6 · 00:30L. Sulava1.837860M. Necas1.831111113LOct 5 · 23:30R. Bartunek1.531111113M. Necas2.386530LOct 5 · 22:30M. Necas2.2017671272M. Stefek1.6115111110113LOct 5 · 20:30M. Barta3.7561311113M. Necas1.251111661WOct 5 · 19:30M. Necas1.4451211133P. Bruzek2.6311105111WOct 5 · 18:30M. Novotny3.0012860M. Necas1.361411113WAug 16 · 02:59M. Necas1.3611111111113M. Novotny3.0068131342LAug 16 · 01:30M. Necas1.73125951V. Dolezal2.00101111113
P. Bruzek10
WOct 5 · 20:00P. Bruzek2.101111137113M. Novotny1.6771151132LOct 5 · 19:30M. Necas1.4451211133P. Bruzek2.6311105111WOct 5 · 18:00P. Bruzek1.5791111113M. Barta2.25112481LSep 30 · 21:30M. Novotny1.651310118113P. Bruzek2.10111251182LSep 30 · 20:00M. Barta2.5071111113P. Bruzek1.50119891WSep 30 · 19:00P. Berdych3.009940P. Bruzek1.361111113LSep 30 · 18:30P. Bruzek1.44613761M. Novotny2.63111111113WSep 26 · 03:30P. Bruzek1.32126115113P. Berdych2.95101151182WSep 26 · 02:30J. Pelikan2.207670P. Bruzek1.611111113WSep 26 · 01:00P. Berdych2.507650P. Bruzek1.501111113
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