TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Miroslav Novotny vs Roman Urban 0-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7116111113––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:58 and never touched: 72.1% is still 72.1%
Graded at full timeRoman Urban to win
72.1%
72.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Roman Urban @ 1.33 · Won
How it is goingMiroslav Novotny above · Roman Urban below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 59 set 3, 11-13 · our read held Roman Urban at 72.1%
59 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Novotny 1–4 Roman Urban Miroslav Novotny has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 23:58Sent to Pro: Roman Urban @ 1.33 · Won
72.1%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 2.9pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Urban
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Urban
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1348 vs Urban 1407
Urban
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 40% vs Urban 20%
Novotny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 50% vs Urban 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny -2 · Urban +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans Urban) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 3.25 / Urban 1.333
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Urban)-2.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13264607
Novotny3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 16 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Urban1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite72% won 33 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeNovotny1wins
AwayUrban4wins
Urban leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayUrban100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny2Urban3n = 5Urban took 3 of 5
S2Novotny1Urban4n = 5Urban took 4 of 5
S3Novotny1Urban4n = 5Urban took 4 of 5
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away360%
These 5 meetings
MetricNovotnyUrbanN − UBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match24.233.6−9.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 347 vs 76 / 14747.3%51.7%164 / 347 vs 76 / 147Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanNovotny 3.25/Urban 1.33
Hit
What we said
72.1%
Urban · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Roman Urban @ 1.33 · Won
What happened
0–3
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 16 · 01:00M. Novotny2311570R. Urban351311113
LApr 4 · 01:30M. Novotny214980R. Urban331111113
LMar 7 · 02:30M. Novotny2041060R. Urban341112113
WFeb 28 · 01:00M. Novotny341112113R. Urban2591060
LFeb 1 · 03:30M. Novotny23114441R. Urban4181111113
M. Novotny10
LOct 9 · 23:00M. Novotny2.10691191M. Stefek1.6711117113LOct 9 · 22:00M. Necas1.307111412113M. Novotny3.40115121432WOct 5 · 21:00M. Novotny1.251051111123M. Barta3.75121143102LOct 5 · 20:00P. Bruzek2.101111137113M. Novotny1.6771151132WOct 5 · 19:00M. Barta2.756440M. Novotny1.401111113LOct 5 · 18:30M. Novotny3.0012860M. Necas1.361411113WOct 3 · 21:30P. Berdych2.454670M. Novotny1.481111113WOct 3 · 20:00M. Syroha2.20411711112M. Novotny1.61115118133WOct 3 · 19:00P. Berdych2.7581151182M. Novotny1.40117118113LOct 3 · 18:30M. Novotny1.6791111382V. Hruska Sr2.10119811113
R. Urban10
WOct 9 · 23:30M. Necas2.00471441R. Urban1.73111112113LOct 9 · 22:30R. Urban1.4446111142M. Novak2.63111153113LSep 27 · 02:30J. Didi1.571411113R. Urban2.2512490LSep 27 · 01:00D. Barton1.91111134113R. Urban1.8027111172LSep 26 · 23:30R. Urban1.402380M. Stefek2.751111113WSep 26 · 22:00R. Urban1.44111165113V. Dolezal2.6376111162WSep 12 · 02:58R. Urban1.5371111113V. Dolezal2.38118981WSep 12 · 02:30R. Urban1.731111143V. Dolezal2.0084120LSep 12 · 01:30J. Didi1.731111113R. Urban2.003880WSep 12 · 00:00R. Urban1.571111113M. Stefek2.258780
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