TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Chovanec vs Vojtech Cerny 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118117––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:59 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeVojtech Cerny to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Chovanec above · Vojtech Cerny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 56 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Vojtech Cerny at 55.8%
56 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chovanec 1–0 Vojtech Cerny Vojtech Cerny has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5955.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chovanec 1508 vs Cerny 1524
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chovanec 40% vs Cerny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chovanec 40% vs Cerny 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chovanec +1 · Cerny -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Cerny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChovanec 2.10 / Cerny 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Cerny)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13259581
Chovanec2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 8 of 25
Down 0–1, comes back15% 2 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Cerny1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 26 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it71% 20 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeChovanec1wins
AwayCerny0wins
Chovanec leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricChovanecCernyChovanec − CernyBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.023.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChovanecCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime25 / 59 vs 56 / 11742.4%47.9%25 / 59 vs 56 / 117Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CernyChovanec 2.10/Cerny 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chovanec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 8 · 08:00P. Chovanec331111113V. Cerny238870
P. Chovanec10
WOct 8 · 09:00P. Chovanec1.571114113V. Cerny2.2571250WOct 8 · 07:30P. Osvald1.83311119112P. Chovanec1.83119411133LOct 8 · 06:00P. Chovanec1.735890M. Blejchar2.001111113LOct 4 · 13:30P. Chovanec2.105101181L. Velicka1.6711126113WOct 4 · 12:30P. Chovanec1.611111123R. Adam2.2099100LOct 4 · 11:00P. Chovanec1.83119791L. Velicka1.8391111113WOct 4 · 10:00M. Blejchar1.9166111232P. Chovanec1.801111710113WOct 1 · 08:59P. Smetka1.83691171P. Chovanec1.8311114113LOct 1 · 08:00D. Machander1.5781111113P. Chovanec2.25118631LOct 1 · 07:00P. Osvald2.201111811113P. Chovanec1.6129111362
V. Cerny10
LOct 8 · 09:00P. Chovanec1.571114113V. Cerny2.2571250LOct 8 · 07:00M. Blejchar2.75231111113V. Cerny1.4011114912LOct 8 · 06:30V. Cerny1.80811118102P. Osvald1.91116811123WOct 6 · 12:59V. Cerny1.611111113J. Levicky2.204730WOct 6 · 12:30V. Cerny1.8391111113J. Levicky1.83115641LOct 6 · 11:00V. Cerny2.204131451S. Byrtus1.61111512113LOct 6 · 10:00M. Heczko1.4411911113V. Cerny2.63011291LOct 6 · 08:59J. Levicky1.83811118113V. Cerny1.8311491182WOct 6 · 08:00J. Levicky1.61117791V. Cerny2.2061111113LOct 6 · 07:00P. Danko1.8391111113V. Cerny1.83116891
Upcoming Matches
P. Chovanec
Nothing scheduled
V. Cerny
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