TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Fisera vs Martin Stefek 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
14125118111012––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:25 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMilan Fisera to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Fisera above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 83 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Milan Fisera at 65.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Milan Fisera 9–4 Martin Stefek Martin Stefek has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2565.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 5.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Fisera
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Fisera
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fisera 1427 vs Stefek 1440
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fisera 60% vs Stefek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fisera 40% vs Stefek 70%
Stefek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fisera -1 · Stefek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Fisera) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFisera 1.40 / Stefek 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Fisera)-5.7pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13258643
Fisera1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 44 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Stefek2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 181 of 420
Down 0–1, comes back22% 49 of 228
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFisera7wins
AwayStefek3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFisera leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFisera100%3 of 3
AwayStefek42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fisera3Stefek7n = 10Stefek took 7 of 10
S2Fisera6Stefek4n = 10Fisera took 6 of 10
S3Fisera9Stefek1n = 10Fisera took 9 of 10
S4Fisera6Stefek1n = 7Fisera took 6 of 7
S5Fisera1Stefek2n = 3Stefek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFiseraStefekF − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.233.3+6.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFiseraStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 329 vs 632 / 130245%48.5%148 / 329 vs 632 / 1302Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FiseraFisera 1.40/Stefek 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Fisera · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 18:30M. Fisera331111113M. Stefek153390
LAug 10 · 19:00M. Fisera46414111162M. Stefek51111658113
WAug 8 · 20:00M. Fisera4391211113M. Stefek351110861
WMay 31 · 14:30M. Fisera331111113M. Stefek188550
WMay 30 · 19:30M. Fisera4251511113M. Stefek381113771
LMay 29 · 20:59M. Fisera215880M. Stefek331111113
WMay 29 · 19:30M. Fisera4291111113M. Stefek31115961
LMay 2 · 16:00M. Fisera50912111172M. Stefek46111464113
WApr 27 · 18:30M. Fisera518111110113M. Stefek3911821262
WApr 21 · 12:00M. Fisera4111811113M. Stefek27411571
M. Fisera10
WOct 8 · 15:00J. Didi1.675240M. Fisera2.101111113LOct 7 · 13:30L. Malek1.915101113113M. Fisera1.80111251192WOct 7 · 12:00L. Malek1.677811111M. Fisera2.1011115133WOct 7 · 11:00T. Nohejl2.201413101M. Fisera1.61111111123LOct 7 · 10:30M. Fisera1.91581281J. Didi1.80111110113WOct 2 · 13:45V. Postelt1.5741491172M. Fisera2.251112116113LOct 2 · 12:30L. Malek1.731011711113M. Fisera2.0012511852LOct 2 · 11:30M. Fisera2.50101111852M. Kolar1.50125511113LOct 2 · 10:30V. Postelt1.25911212113M. Fisera3.75118111072LSep 26 · 21:30M. Fisera1.678690J. Didi2.101111113
M. Stefek10
LOct 8 · 15:30M. Stefek2.638860D. Barton1.441111113WOct 8 · 13:30A. Svoboda1.48119611142M. Stefek2.45511115163LOct 8 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.44911811113M. Stefek2.6311911692WOct 8 · 11:00R. Hasmanda2.008121051M. Stefek1.73111012113LOct 8 · 10:30M. Stefek2.2571131162V. Dolezal1.57113116113WOct 6 · 21:30M. Stefek1.651111113T. Regner2.108880WOct 6 · 20:00J. Moravek1.5010780M. Stefek2.501211113WOct 6 · 19:00T. Regner1.8311811522M. Stefek1.83511911113WOct 6 · 18:30M. Stefek1.401111143J. Framberk2.7578120LOct 6 · 03:30R. Bartunek1.401111113M. Stefek2.757870
Upcoming Matches
M. Fisera
Nothing scheduled
M. Stefek
Oct 8 · 16:30M. Stefek1.83J. Didi1.83—Oct 9 · 18:00M. Stefek2.75R. Bartunek1.40—Oct 9 · 19:00M. Stefek2.20J. Kucharcik1.61—Oct 9 · 20:30M. Stefek1.83J. Didi1.83—Oct 9 · 23:00M. Stefek1.73M. Novotny2.00—Oct 10 · 00:00M. Stefek1.50M. Novak2.50—Oct 10 · 01:30M. Stefek2.10R. Urban1.67—Oct 10 · 02:30M. Stefek1.73M. Necas2.00—
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