TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Fojt vs Radim Pavelka 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111191012711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:29 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Radim Pavelka @ 1.50 · Won
How it is goingPavel Fojt above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 80 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Radim Pavelka at 63.7%
80 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Fojt 14–26 Radim Pavelka Pavel Fojt has won 14 of their 40 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 00:29Sent to Pro: Radim Pavelka @ 1.50 · Won
63.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Pavelka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-26 in 40
Pavelka
Correct
gap of 12 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fojt 1527 vs Pavelka 1551
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fojt 40% vs Pavelka 60%
Pavelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fojt 30% vs Pavelka 50%
Pavelka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fojt +1 · Pavelka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Pavelka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFojt 2.50 / Pavelka 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Pavelka)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13258498
Fojt2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 60 of 162
Down 0–1, comes back19% 18 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 58
Pavelka1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 98 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it78% 68 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFojt2wins
AwayPavelka8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFojt40%2 of 5
AwayPavelka100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fojt5Pavelka5n = 10split evenly
S2Fojt3Pavelka7n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S3Fojt4Pavelka6n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S4Fojt2Pavelka4n = 6Pavelka took 4 of 6
S5Fojt0Pavelka3n = 3Pavelka took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricFojtPavelkaF − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.240.3−6.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFojtPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime336 / 689 vs 449 / 88848.8%50.6%336 / 689 vs 449 / 888Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaFojt 2.50/Pavelka 1.50
Hit
What we said
63.7%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Radim Pavelka @ 1.50 · Won
What happened
1–3
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 23:30P. Fojt331012471R. Pavelka44121011113
LJul 30 · 21:28P. Fojt4512861362R. Pavelka5410111111113
LJul 30 · 20:00P. Fojt4612511992R. Pavelka501011711113
LJul 27 · 21:28P. Fojt2814680R. Pavelka381611113
WJul 27 · 18:30P. Fojt341112113R. Pavelka2891090
LJul 26 · 03:30P. Fojt2385100R. Pavelka341111123
WJul 26 · 02:00P. Fojt3811511113R. Pavelka29511941
LJul 12 · 18:00P. Fojt4911913882R. Pavelka517111111113
LJul 1 · 20:30P. Fojt28611741R. Pavelka4211911113
LJun 14 · 18:00P. Fojt185580R. Pavelka331111113
P. Fojt10
LOct 9 · 02:58P. Fojt2.50981161R. Pavelka1.5011118113WOct 9 · 02:00P. Fojt2.631111113V. Postelt1.447890WOct 9 · 00:00R. Krejci1.2271151142P. Fojt4.00116115113LOct 8 · 22:30P. Zmuda1.57101111113P. Fojt2.25127371WOct 6 · 02:58K. Darin2.387620P. Fojt1.531111113LOct 6 · 01:30P. Fojt1.44137971K. Darin2.63111111113LOct 6 · 00:30J. Prokupek1.6111118113P. Fojt2.20741191WOct 5 · 23:30J. Dedek1.57108111192P. Fojt2.25121199113LOct 5 · 22:30P. Fojt1.73117911122J. Plachy2.00611115143LOct 4 · 01:30P. Fojt1.57611991J. Trefny2.2511611113
R. Pavelka10
WOct 9 · 02:58P. Fojt2.50981161R. Pavelka1.5011118113LOct 9 · 02:30R. Krejci1.671111113R. Pavelka2.105260WOct 8 · 23:30R. Pavelka1.8011911113P. Zmuda1.91511791LOct 8 · 22:00R. Pavelka1.911286101V. Postelt1.80101111123LOct 8 · 13:30K. Darin1.911211113R. Pavelka1.8010830WOct 8 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.6111911113J. Dedek2.20411571WOct 8 · 11:30J. Prokupek2.2010950R. Pavelka1.611211113LOct 8 · 10:00R. Pavelka1.446690K. Darin2.631111113WOct 7 · 13:10R. Pavelka1.33111179113J. Prokupek3.2556111142WOct 7 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.6111117123J. Prokupek2.204911101
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