TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radim Pavelka vs Petr Zmuda 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115911117119––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:24 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Petr Zmuda below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Radim Pavelka at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 8–2 Petr Zmuda Petr Zmuda has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:2454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pavelka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-2 in 10
Pavelka
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1537 vs Zmuda 1579
Zmuda
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 40% vs Zmuda 80%
Zmuda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 40% vs Zmuda 60%
Zmuda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka -2 · Zmuda +3
Zmuda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Pavelka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmuda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 1.80 / Zmuda 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pavelka)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13258494
Pavelka1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 98 of 156
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it78% 68 of 87
Zmuda1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 26 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back27% 10 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka8wins
AwayZmuda2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPavelka leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka100%5 of 5
AwayZmuda40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka5Zmuda5n = 10split evenly
S2Pavelka5Zmuda5n = 10split evenly
S3Pavelka7Zmuda3n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S4Pavelka8Zmuda1n = 9Pavelka took 8 of 9
S5Pavelka3Zmuda2n = 5Pavelka took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaZmudaP − ZBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.838.1+5.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaZmudaBasisWin rate · lifetime448 / 887 vs 139 / 27150.5%51.3%448 / 887 vs 139 / 271Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaPavelka 1.80/Zmuda 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 01:00R. Pavelka4071111113P. Zmuda22115241
WOct 2 · 22:30R. Pavelka48611119113P. Zmuda4311871162
LSep 23 · 07:00R. Pavelka50108111382P. Zmuda501211511113
WAug 22 · 06:00R. Pavelka3851111113P. Zmuda33118771
WJul 10 · 09:30R. Pavelka6011111115123P. Zmuda567131313102
LJul 10 · 07:00R. Pavelka4176111162P. Zmuda43111164113
WJul 5 · 09:30R. Pavelka46116711113P. Zmuda4781111892
WJul 5 · 06:00R. Pavelka341111123P. Zmuda2798100
WJul 28 · 21:30R. Pavelka4011711113P. Zmuda28611471
WJul 28 · 19:30R. Pavelka4111118113P. Zmuda32481191
R. Pavelka10
LOct 8 · 22:00R. Pavelka1.911286101V. Postelt1.80101111123LOct 8 · 13:30K. Darin1.911211113R. Pavelka1.8010830WOct 8 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.6111911113J. Dedek2.20411571WOct 8 · 11:30J. Prokupek2.2010950R. Pavelka1.611211113LOct 8 · 10:00R. Pavelka1.446690K. Darin2.631111113WOct 7 · 13:10R. Pavelka1.33111179113J. Prokupek3.2556111142WOct 7 · 12:00R. Pavelka1.6111117123J. Prokupek2.204911101LOct 7 · 11:30K. Darin2.7511611113R. Pavelka1.40711721LOct 7 · 10:00R. Pavelka1.67711481J. Trefny2.1011811113LOct 5 · 03:02R. Pavelka1.915750R. Krejci1.801111113
P. Zmuda10
WOct 9 · 00:30V. Postelt2.388450P. Zmuda1.531111113WOct 8 · 22:30P. Zmuda1.57101111113P. Fojt2.25127371WOct 8 · 13:30P. Zmuda1.8041111113J. Trefny1.91115851WOct 8 · 12:00J. Plachy2.75116481P. Zmuda1.4091111113LOct 8 · 11:00J. Trefny2.359111011113P. Zmuda1.5411312342WOct 8 · 10:30P. Zmuda1.7311811113M. Vedmoch2.00511321WOct 8 · 08:58P. Zmuda1.50101411113J. Plachy2.501212681WOct 8 · 08:30P. Zmuda1.501211113J. Plachy2.5010340LOct 8 · 07:00P. Zmuda1.53951391J. Trefny2.38111111113LOct 8 · 06:00M. Vedmoch2.381112143P. Zmuda1.53710120
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