TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Plachy vs Petr Zmuda 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119611411811––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:47 and never touched: 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Plachy above · Petr Zmuda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Petr Zmuda at 69.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Plachy 8–11 Petr Zmuda Jiri Plachy has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 3h before this match
Zmuda beat Plachy 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4769.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Zmuda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Zmuda
Correct
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plachy 1430 vs Zmuda 1549
Zmuda
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plachy 40% vs Zmuda 60%
Zmuda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plachy 20% vs Zmuda 50%
Zmuda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plachy +1 · Zmuda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Zmuda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmuda form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlachy 2.75 / Zmuda 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Zmuda)-1.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13258984
Plachy2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 143 of 356
Down 0–1, comes back21% 42 of 200
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 108
Zmuda1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 73 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it85% 50 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlachy4wins
AwayZmuda6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderZmuda leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlachy60%3 of 5
AwayZmuda80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plachy5Zmuda5n = 10split evenly
S2Plachy3Zmuda7n = 10Zmuda took 7 of 10
S3Plachy6Zmuda4n = 10Plachy took 6 of 10
S4Plachy2Zmuda6n = 8Zmuda took 6 of 8
S5Plachy3Zmuda2n = 5Plachy took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlachyZmudaP − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.641.1−3.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlachyZmudaBasisWin rate · lifetime738 / 1601 vs 136 / 26846.1%50.8%738 / 1601 vs 136 / 268Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZmudaPlachy 2.75/Zmuda 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Zmuda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zmuda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 07:30J. Plachy40111151122P. Zmuda49136118113
LOct 1 · 07:30J. Plachy33115981P. Zmuda4291111113
WSep 23 · 06:30J. Plachy47119115113P. Zmuda4171131192
LAug 2 · 18:30J. Plachy198830P. Zmuda331111113
LJul 20 · 00:00J. Plachy28921161P. Zmuda4211119113
LJul 10 · 06:30J. Plachy27116551P. Zmuda3961111113
LJul 9 · 00:00J. Plachy5159111882P. Zmuda551111616113
WJul 7 · 13:00J. Plachy49711119113P. Zmuda4311771172
WJul 7 · 10:00J. Plachy47116118113P. Zmuda4081171132
WJul 7 · 06:30J. Plachy351311113P. Zmuda2711880
J. Plachy10
LOct 8 · 11:30M. Vedmoch1.571111810113J. Plachy2.2585111262WOct 8 · 10:00J. Plachy2.001212610113J. Trefny1.731010111262LOct 8 · 08:58P. Zmuda1.50101411113J. Plachy2.501212681LOct 8 · 08:30P. Zmuda1.501211113J. Plachy2.5010340LOct 8 · 07:30J. Plachy2.389560M. Vedmoch1.531111113WOct 8 · 06:30J. Trefny1.61911971J. Plachy2.2011511113LOct 7 · 21:03J. Dedek1.911191111113J. Plachy1.8061151342LOct 7 · 20:30J. Dedek2.50711116113J. Plachy1.5011761132LOct 7 · 19:30J. Plachy1.737121181J. Prokupek2.0011149113LOct 7 · 18:30M. Vedmoch1.731111113J. Plachy2.003880
P. Zmuda10
LOct 8 · 11:00J. Trefny2.359111011113P. Zmuda1.5411312342WOct 8 · 10:30P. Zmuda1.7311811113M. Vedmoch2.00511321WOct 8 · 08:58P. Zmuda1.50101411113J. Plachy2.501212681WOct 8 · 08:30P. Zmuda1.501211113J. Plachy2.5010340LOct 8 · 07:00P. Zmuda1.53951391J. Trefny2.38111111113LOct 8 · 06:00M. Vedmoch2.381112143P. Zmuda1.53710120LOct 5 · 21:30P. Zmuda2.10111284102T. Janata1.658101111123WOct 5 · 20:00P. Zmuda2.3881111113T. Janata1.53116671WOct 5 · 19:30M. Vedmoch3.0081113992P. Zmuda1.361181111113LOct 5 · 18:00P. Zmuda2.20511481K. Brozhik1.6111811113
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