TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Zmuda vs Tomas Janata 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811116116117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched: 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeTomas Janata to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Tomas Janata below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Tomas Janata at 62.8%
71 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 2–5 Tomas Janata Petr Zmuda has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5862.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Janata
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Janata
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1549 vs Janata 1606
Janata
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 20% vs Janata 60%
Janata
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 30% vs Janata 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda +1 · Janata +3
Janata
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Janata) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmuda form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 2.375 / Janata 1.533
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Janata)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243657
Zmuda2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 25 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back26% 9 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Janata1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 114 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it91% 57 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it78% 86 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeZmuda2wins
AwayJanata5wins
1 of 7 to a deciderJanata leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmudan = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayJanata71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmuda0Janata7n = 7Janata took 7 of 7
S2Zmuda2Janata5n = 7Janata took 5 of 7
S3Zmuda4Janata3n = 7Zmuda took 4 of 7
S4Zmuda2Janata3n = 5Janata took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricZmudaJanataZ − JBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set07−7of 7Avg pointsper match32.638.4−5.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaJanataBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 260 vs 451 / 84250.8%53.6%132 / 260 vs 451 / 842Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JanataZmuda 2.38/Janata 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.8%
Janata · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zmuda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 23 · 18:00P. Zmuda239860T. Janata331111113
LAug 12 · 17:28P. Zmuda344101191T. Janata4311129113
WAug 12 · 16:00P. Zmuda50911811113T. Janata4511911772
LAug 10 · 23:00P. Zmuda1934120T. Janata361111143
LAug 4 · 00:30P. Zmuda389811101T. Janata3911115123
WAug 3 · 20:00P. Zmuda3851111113T. Janata31119381
LJul 30 · 15:30P. Zmuda26651141T. Janata4211119113
P. Zmuda10
WOct 5 · 19:30M. Vedmoch3.0081113992P. Zmuda1.361181111113LOct 5 · 18:00P. Zmuda2.20511481K. Brozhik1.6111811113LOct 5 · 02:30R. Krejci2.00911113113P. Zmuda1.7311881182LOct 5 · 01:00R. Pavelka1.8371111113P. Zmuda1.83115241LOct 4 · 23:30P. Zmuda2.25751191M. Chlebecek1.5711117113LOct 4 · 22:00P. Zmuda1.676510K. Brozhik2.101111113WOct 3 · 03:00M. Vedmoch2.109114111P. Zmuda1.6711611133LOct 3 · 01:30P. Zmuda1.61612811102M. Sobisek2.201110119123LOct 3 · 00:30M. Vedmoch2.631111113P. Zmuda1.449640WOct 2 · 23:30K. Brozhik1.91118281P. Zmuda1.8051111113
T. Janata10
WOct 5 · 19:00K. Brozhik1.4461111962T. Janata2.63114611113WOct 5 · 18:30T. Janata1.44951112113M. Vedmoch2.63111151082WOct 4 · 16:59J. Zuzanek1.6711511452T. Janata2.10511911113LOct 4 · 16:30M. Nohejl1.4013119113T. Janata2.751171151LOct 4 · 15:30T. Janata2.00133931J. Zuzanek1.73111111113LOct 4 · 14:30M. Vizek1.61121128113T. Janata2.20105111182LSep 29 · 20:58T. Janata2.3891250J. Pozarsky1.531114113WSep 29 · 20:00J. Pozarsky1.55111181392T. Janata2.30631115113LSep 29 · 19:00R. Krejci1.611111113T. Janata2.209960LSep 29 · 18:30T. Janata2.6311116752K. Brozhik1.44481111113
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