TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Zmuda vs Tomas Janata 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11812108114111012
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:19 and never touched: 56.4% is still 56.4%
Graded at full timeTomas Janata to win
56.4%
56.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Tomas Janata below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 97 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Tomas Janata at 56.4%
97 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 3–5 Tomas Janata Petr Zmuda has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Zmuda beat Janata 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:1956.4%Our read60.6%to break even at 1.65
short by 4.2pp60.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.65 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Janata
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Janata
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1562 vs Janata 1593
Janata
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 40% vs Janata 60%
Janata
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 30% vs Janata 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda +2 · Janata -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Janata) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 2.10 / Janata 1.65
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Janata)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13251437
Zmuda2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 25 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back26% 9 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Janata1.65
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 114 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it91% 57 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it78% 86 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeZmuda3wins
AwayJanata5wins
1 of 8 to a deciderJanata leads 5–3, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmudan = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayJanata62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmuda0Janata8n = 8Janata took 8 of 8
S2Zmuda3Janata5n = 8Janata took 5 of 8
S3Zmuda5Janata3n = 8Zmuda took 5 of 8
S4Zmuda3Janata3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricZmudaJanataZ − JBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set08−8of 8Avg pointsper match33.637.4−3.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaJanataBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 261 vs 451 / 84351%53.5%133 / 261 vs 451 / 843Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JanataZmuda 2.10/Janata 1.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.4%
Janata · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Janata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 5 · 20:00P. Zmuda4181111113T. Janata30116671
LAug 23 · 18:00P. Zmuda239860T. Janata331111113
LAug 12 · 17:28P. Zmuda344101191T. Janata4311129113
WAug 12 · 16:00P. Zmuda50911811113T. Janata4511911772
LAug 10 · 23:00P. Zmuda1934120T. Janata361111143
LAug 4 · 00:30P. Zmuda389811101T. Janata3911115123
WAug 3 · 20:00P. Zmuda3851111113T. Janata31119381
LJul 30 · 15:30P. Zmuda26651141T. Janata4211119113
P. Zmuda10
WOct 5 · 20:00P. Zmuda2.3881111113T. Janata1.53116671WOct 5 · 19:30M. Vedmoch3.0081113992P. Zmuda1.361181111113LOct 5 · 18:00P. Zmuda2.20511481K. Brozhik1.6111811113LOct 5 · 02:30R. Krejci2.00911113113P. Zmuda1.7311881182LOct 5 · 01:00R. Pavelka1.8371111113P. Zmuda1.83115241LOct 4 · 23:30P. Zmuda2.25751191M. Chlebecek1.5711117113LOct 4 · 22:00P. Zmuda1.676510K. Brozhik2.101111113WOct 3 · 03:00M. Vedmoch2.109114111P. Zmuda1.6711611133LOct 3 · 01:30P. Zmuda1.61612811102M. Sobisek2.201110119123LOct 3 · 00:30M. Vedmoch2.631111113P. Zmuda1.449640
T. Janata10
LOct 5 · 20:00P. Zmuda2.3881111113T. Janata1.53116671WOct 5 · 19:00K. Brozhik1.4461111962T. Janata2.63114611113WOct 5 · 18:30T. Janata1.44951112113M. Vedmoch2.63111151082WOct 4 · 16:59J. Zuzanek1.6711511452T. Janata2.10511911113LOct 4 · 16:30M. Nohejl1.4013119113T. Janata2.751171151LOct 4 · 15:30T. Janata2.00133931J. Zuzanek1.73111111113LOct 4 · 14:30M. Vizek1.61121128113T. Janata2.20105111182LSep 29 · 20:58T. Janata2.3891250J. Pozarsky1.531114113WSep 29 · 20:00J. Pozarsky1.55111181392T. Janata2.30631115113LSep 29 · 19:00R. Krejci1.611111113T. Janata2.209960
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