TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radek Neterda vs Ondrej Pros 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911911113811––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:47 and never touched: 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeRadek Neterda to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Radek Neterda @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingRadek Neterda above · Ondrej Pros below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Radek Neterda at 56.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Radek Neterda 5–9 Ondrej Pros Radek Neterda has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 07:4756.1%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 9.1pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Neterda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Pros
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neterda 1589 vs Pros 1392
Neterda
Wrong
both rated, 197 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neterda 80% vs Pros 20%
Neterda
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neterda 70% vs Pros 20%
Neterda
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neterda +1 · Pros +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Neterda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pros form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeterda 1.533 / Pros 2.375
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Neterda)-9.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13257003
Neterda1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 65 of 102
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it75% 46 of 61
Pros2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 38 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back19% 12 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeterda3wins
AwayPros7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPros leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeterda33.3%1 of 3
AwayPros71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neterda3Pros7n = 10Pros took 7 of 10
S2Neterda4Pros6n = 10Pros took 6 of 10
S3Neterda6Pros4n = 10Neterda took 6 of 10
S4Neterda4Pros4n = 8split evenly
S5Neterda0Pros3n = 3Pros took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeterdaProsN − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.541.1−2.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeterdaProsBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 470 vs 123 / 27751.1%44.4%240 / 470 vs 123 / 277Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.035.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaNeterda 1.53/Pros 2.38
Miss
What we said
56.1%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Radek Neterda @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
1–3
Pros won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 09:08R. Neterda4212811113O. Pros341011851
WOct 5 · 08:35R. Neterda3731111123O. Pros321165101
WSep 29 · 12:35R. Neterda3951112113O. Pros291121061
LSep 17 · 10:35R. Neterda28811451O. Pros4011711113
LSep 1 · 13:20R. Neterda511191110102O. Pros50711812123
LSep 1 · 12:35R. Neterda4510111591O. Pros49121313113
LAug 4 · 12:35R. Neterda198920O. Pros331111113
LJun 28 · 18:05R. Neterda49131081172O. Pros531112118113
LJun 15 · 10:35R. Neterda2591150O. Pros351113113
LMar 13 · 14:05R. Neterda505111212102O. Pros561191014123
R. Neterda10
LOct 7 · 09:08R. Neterda1.9111541162P. Chvatal1.80411117113WOct 7 · 07:05P. Chvatal1.6781111482R. Neterda2.10115811113LOct 7 · 06:35T. Trnka1.50118119113R. Neterda2.5081141172WOct 6 · 17:33R. Neterda1.8011121111173J. Ruzicka1.91131439152WOct 6 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.57541341R. Neterda2.25111111113WOct 6 · 15:35J. Manhal Jr1.917101151R. Neterda1.8011124113WOct 6 · 14:35R. Neterda1.50111511113M. Flesar2.50817571WOct 5 · 09:08R. Neterda1.8312811113O. Pros1.831011851WOct 5 · 08:35R. Neterda2.0031111123O. Pros1.731165101LOct 5 · 07:05T. Palan1.7311115113R. Neterda2.00891171
O. Pros10
WOct 7 · 07:35O. Pros4.3311511113T. Trnka1.20711541LOct 7 · 06:05P. Chvatal1.2211118113O. Pros4.00631171LOct 5 · 09:08R. Neterda1.8312811113O. Pros1.831011851LOct 5 · 08:35R. Neterda2.0031111123O. Pros1.731165101LOct 5 · 07:35O. Pros3.755490T. Trnka1.251111113LOct 5 · 06:05T. Palan1.611111011113O. Pros2.2091112662LOct 1 · 17:24O. Pros1.831011581J. Martin1.8312711113WOct 1 · 16:05J. Martin1.504740O. Pros2.501111113LOct 1 · 15:35L. Vana1.53101111113O. Pros2.38128491LOct 1 · 14:35O. Pros1.8342110T. Krcil1.831111133
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