TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Konrad Staszczyk vs Szymon Brud 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111191214111119
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:19 and never touched: 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Szymon Brud below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-1
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 98 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 69.1%
98 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 4–4 Szymon Brud Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1969.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1773 vs Brud 1546
Staszczyk
Correct
both rated, 227 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 100% vs Brud 60%
Staszczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 80% vs Brud 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk +7 · Brud +2
Staszczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Staszczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brud form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 1.40 / Brud 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Staszczyk)-2.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13256564
Staszczyk1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite68% won 223 of 330
Up 2–0, closes it91% 99 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it85% 164 of 193
Brud2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 45 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back25% 21 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeStaszczyk4wins
AwayBrud4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaszczyk75%3 of 4
AwayBrud75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staszczyk4Brud4n = 8split evenly
S2Staszczyk4Brud4n = 8split evenly
S3Staszczyk4Brud4n = 8split evenly
S4Staszczyk2Brud2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricStaszczykBrudS − BBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match33.434.2−0.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykBrudBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 442 vs 587 / 111160%52.8%265 / 442 vs 587 / 1111Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykStaszczyk 1.40/Brud 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 2 · 22:05K. Staszczyk4012611113S. Brud311011551
WOct 2 · 16:05K. Staszczyk331111113S. Brud166550
WJul 12 · 20:05K. Staszczyk361211133S. Brud28107110
LJul 11 · 19:40K. Staszczyk2371060S. Brud341112113
LJun 14 · 09:00K. Staszczyk4211651192S. Brud44611115113
LJun 13 · 10:05K. Staszczyk28511751S. Brud4211911113
WApr 28 · 18:55K. Staszczyk494111310113S. Brud46114111282
LApr 27 · 20:30K. Staszczyk167450S. Brud331111113
K. Staszczyk10
WOct 7 · 16:05K. Rudomina2.639870K. Staszczyk1.441111113WOct 7 · 15:25K. Staszczyk1.4011118113P. Blocho2.75641161WOct 7 · 00:35K. Staszczyk1.441111113L. Pietraszko2.639540WOct 6 · 23:45P. Blocho2.632116101K. Staszczyk1.4411511123WOct 6 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.331111113A. Linek3.256760WOct 6 · 21:50A. Gromek3.25111111052K. Staszczyk1.33871112113WOct 6 · 00:35K. Staszczyk1.30111168163A. Gromek3.40471111142LOct 5 · 23:45J. Glanowski3.75541511113K. Staszczyk1.25111113942WOct 5 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.2011911143M. Trela4.336114121LOct 5 · 21:50A. Linek3.25881111113K. Staszczyk1.3311119892
S. Brud10
WOct 7 · 16:30A. Myszewski2.3891141182S. Brud1.53118117113WOct 7 · 15:00K. Rudomina2.00831281S. Brud1.73111110113LOct 5 · 00:10S. Brud1.61811119112B. Sulkowski2.20119711133LOct 4 · 23:20S. Brud1.911212101192L. Pietraszko1.801014123113WOct 4 · 21:50S. Brud1.831113113M. Kukawka1.8351160WOct 4 · 21:25S. Brud1.401111113J. Nadolny2.756640LOct 4 · 20:30L. Pietraszko1.447181114123S. Brud2.631116516102WOct 4 · 19:15S. Brud1.801312411113B. Sulkowski1.91111411592WOct 4 · 18:05J. Nadolny1.838690S. Brud1.831111113WOct 4 · 16:55J. Zochniak2.001110115102S. Brud1.73312611123
Upcoming Matches
K. Staszczyk
S. Brud
Oct 7 · 19:15S. Brud1.73P. Blocho2.00—Oct 7 · 20:05S. Brud2.25P. Perzynski1.57—Oct 7 · 21:00S. Brud1.80K. Rudomina1.91—Oct 7 · 22:55S. Brud2.25P. Perzynski1.57—Oct 7 · 23:45S. Brud1.61A. Mugowski2.20—Oct 8 · 00:10S. Brud1.73P. Blocho2.00—Oct 8 · 15:00S. Brud—P. Perzynski——Oct 8 · 16:05S. Brud—B. Sulkowski——Oct 8 · 17:40S. Brud—M. Minda——Oct 8 · 18:50S. Brud—B. Czerwinski——
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