TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ihor Kvak vs Dmytro Ponomarenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115115––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:07 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeIhor Kvak to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Kvak above · Dmytro Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 50 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Ihor Kvak at 61.7%
50 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Kvak 2–0 Dmytro Ponomarenko Dmytro Ponomarenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0761.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 7.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kvak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kvak 1446 vs Ponomarenko 1395
Kvak
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kvak 60% vs Ponomarenko 40%
Kvak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kvak 50% vs Ponomarenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kvak +2 · Ponomarenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Kvak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKvak 1.444 / Ponomarenko 2.625
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kvak)-7.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13255793
Kvak1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 26 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Ponomarenko2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 16 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back15% 6 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKvak2wins
AwayPonomarenko0wins
Kvak leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKvakPonomarenkoK − PBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match39.023.5+15.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKvakPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 86 vs 50 / 11250%44.6%43 / 86 vs 50 / 112Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match34.536.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KvakKvak 1.44/Ponomarenko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Kvak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kvak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 7 · 06:25I. Kvak331111113D. Ponomarenko177550
WOct 6 · 18:55I. Kvak45111110133D. Ponomarenko306112111
I. Kvak10
WOct 7 · 07:25R. Bihun1.802340I. Kvak1.911111113WOct 7 · 05:25V. Kheresko2.501110581I. Kvak1.5071211113WOct 6 · 18:55D. Ponomarenko2.386112111I. Kvak1.53111110133LOct 6 · 17:25I. Kvak1.53711781D. Kasian2.3811911113LOct 6 · 15:25K. Tkachenko2.5011711123I. Kvak1.505118101WOct 6 · 13:25R. Mazur2.755790I. Kvak1.401111113WOct 6 · 12:25V. Kheresko2.00119871I. Kvak1.7331111113LSep 27 · 11:25D. Palii1.361111113I. Kvak3.009780LSep 27 · 09:55I. Kvak1.83101090M. Slozka1.831212113WSep 27 · 07:55S. Prus2.00118851I. Kvak1.7391111113
D. Ponomarenko10
WOct 7 · 04:25R. Bihun1.80961231D. Ponomarenko1.91111110113LOct 6 · 18:55D. Ponomarenko2.386112111I. Kvak1.53111110133LOct 6 · 16:55V. Kheresko1.911111123D. Ponomarenko1.8097100WOct 6 · 14:55R. Mazur1.6111117972D. Ponomarenko2.20581111113LOct 6 · 13:55D. Ponomarenko1.5310171181D. Kasian2.3812197113WOct 6 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.57117781D. Ponomarenko2.2541111113LOct 1 · 12:20D. Ponomarenko3.2511126722O. Ovsiienko1.337101111113WOct 1 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy1.531141591D. Ponomarenko2.3881117113WOct 1 · 09:20D. Ponomarenko1.5071111113M. Stetsenko2.50117771WOct 1 · 08:20V. Melnykov2.00591161D. Ponomarenko1.7311117113
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