TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anatolii Dulich vs Dmytro Ponomarenko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Anatolii Dulich
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811911––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Dulich to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnatolii Dulich above · Dmytro Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 59 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Anatolii Dulich at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Dulich 0–1 Dmytro Ponomarenko Anatolii Dulich has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dulich 1428 vs Ponomarenko 1410
Dulich
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dulich 80% vs Ponomarenko 40%
Dulich
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dulich 70% vs Ponomarenko 50%
Dulich
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dulich +4 · Ponomarenko -1
Dulich
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dulich) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDulich 1.833 / Ponomarenko 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dulich)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13256065
Dulich1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Ponomarenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDulich0wins
AwayPonomarenko1wins
Ponomarenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricDulichPonomarenkoD − PBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match26.033.0−7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDulichPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 254 vs 51 / 11347.2%45.1%120 / 254 vs 51 / 113Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DulichDulich 1.83/Ponomarenko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dulich · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 7 · 08:25A. Dulich269890D. Ponomarenko331111113
A. Dulich10
LOct 7 · 10:25R. Bihun1.671112113A. Dulich2.1051060WOct 7 · 09:25A. Dulich2.00116612113I. Kvak1.73711111072WOct 7 · 06:55A. Dulich1.251211153V. Kheresko3.75103130WOct 7 · 04:55A. Dulich2.001311113D. Kasian1.7311590WSep 23 · 10:25S. Kryvoshyi4.005270A. Dulich1.221111113WSep 23 · 09:25A. Dulich1.36119812113O. Melnik3.00811111062LSep 23 · 08:25A. Dulich2.50117681D. Kozoriz1.5051111113LSep 23 · 06:55A. Dulich1.614580V. Hel2.201111113LSep 23 · 04:55A. Dulich1.509114121O. Maksymkiv2.5011611143WJul 14 · 17:55O. Maksymkiv2.2571141132A. Dulich1.57118116113
D. Ponomarenko10
WOct 7 · 10:55V. Kheresko1.6191191182D. Ponomarenko2.20117119113WOct 7 · 09:55D. Kasian1.835970D. Ponomarenko1.831111113LOct 7 · 06:25I. Kvak1.441111113D. Ponomarenko2.637550WOct 7 · 04:25R. Bihun1.80961231D. Ponomarenko1.91111110113LOct 6 · 18:55D. Ponomarenko2.386112111I. Kvak1.53111110133LOct 6 · 16:55V. Kheresko1.911111123D. Ponomarenko1.8097100WOct 6 · 14:55R. Mazur1.6111117972D. Ponomarenko2.20581111113LOct 6 · 13:55D. Ponomarenko1.5310171181D. Kasian2.3812197113WOct 6 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.57117781D. Ponomarenko2.2541111113LOct 1 · 12:20D. Ponomarenko3.2511126722O. Ovsiienko1.337101111113
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