TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Kurek vs Jaroslaw Badura 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311911811––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:08 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Jaroslaw Badura below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Pawel Kurek at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 2–0 Jaroslaw Badura Jaroslaw Badura has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kurek beat Badura 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:0854.0%Our read57.5%to break even at 1.74
short by 3.5pp57.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.74 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (52%)
Kurek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1440 vs Badura 1442
Badura
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 80% vs Badura 60%
Kurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 80% vs Badura 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek +4 · Badura +1
Kurek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kurek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.74 / Badura 1.86
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kurek)-3.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13255008
Kurek1.74
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 243 of 379
Up 2–0, closes it95% 115 of 121
Up 1–0, closes it83% 168 of 203
Badura1.86
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 51 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKurek2wins
AwayBadura0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderKurek leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKurekBaduraK − BBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match42.028.0+14.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekBaduraBasisWin rate · lifetime472 / 924 vs 313 / 56751.1%55.2%472 / 924 vs 313 / 567Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KurekKurek 1.74/Badura 1.86
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Badura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 6 · 19:40P. Kurek511111810113J. Badura4055111272
WJul 20 · 02:45P. Kurek331111113J. Badura163490
P. Kurek10
WOct 6 · 21:00P. Kurek1.5711119113K. Schaniel2.25981191WOct 6 · 19:40J. Badura2.2555111272P. Kurek1.571111810113WOct 6 · 18:55I. Szymanski4.336360P. Kurek1.201111113WOct 6 · 18:10P. Kurek1.4411611123M. Baron2.636116101LOct 6 · 16:35P. Kurek1.53118100K. Schaniel2.381311123WOct 6 · 15:50K. Durak1.5071080P. Kurek2.501112113WOct 5 · 04:20J. Nowak2.9510750P. Kurek1.361211113WOct 5 · 03:30D. Dytko1.7511341132P. Kurek1.90511117113WOct 5 · 02:45P. Kurek1.701111113P. Gumulinski2.046440LOct 5 · 01:10P. Kurek1.8278111382W. Urban1.881111411113
J. Badura10
WOct 6 · 21:20J. Badura1.671111123M. Baron2.1069100LOct 6 · 19:40J. Badura2.2555111272P. Kurek1.571111810113LOct 6 · 18:30J. Badura2.502980K. Durak1.501111113WOct 6 · 17:20J. Badura1.839111011113K. Schaniel1.8311812552WOct 6 · 16:15I. Szymanski3.7561260J. Badura1.251114113WOct 6 · 15:25J. Badura1.57116118113M. Baron2.2541111162WOct 5 · 14:20J. Badura2.20811116113K. Slawinski1.6111951192WOct 5 · 12:40S. Szostok1.67911114102J. Badura2.10114711123WOct 5 · 11:50O. Vincenec2.101011271J. Badura1.6712911113LOct 5 · 11:00J. Badura2.38911111182J. Pruszkowski1.53111397113
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