Jaroslaw Badura vs Kamil Durak 0-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite Series

Played Oct 6Finished

Jaroslaw Badura

Home

2.50

At publish

Won last 6

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 6

Final

0 – 3

Set by set

211911811––––

Kamil Durak

Away

1.50

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:16 and never touched: 62.5% is still 62.5%

Graded at full time

Kamil Durak to win

62.5%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingJaroslaw Badura above · Kamil Durak below

Set 1 · 2-11

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 8-11

Point 52 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Kamil Durak at 62.5%

52 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 18:16

62.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50

short by 4.2pp

66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.50 (63%)

Durak

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Badura 1456 vs Durak 1540

Durak

Correct

both rated, 84 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Badura 100% vs Durak 80%

Badura

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Badura 70% vs Durak 80%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Badura +6 · Durak +2

Badura

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Durak) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Durak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsBadura 2.50 / Durak 1.50

Signal prob.38% / 63%

Edge (Durak)-4.2pp (anti-value)

TT Elite Series · #13253789

Badura2.50

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 6

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog42% won 51 of 123

Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 71

Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 38

Durak1.50

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite76% won 45 of 59

Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24

Up 1–0, closes it97% 34 of 35

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricBaduraDurakBasisWin rate · lifetime312 / 564 vs 61 / 8355.3%73.5%312 / 564 vs 61 / 83Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.4per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Durak

Badura 2.50/Durak 1.50

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

62.5%

Durak · sealed before the serve

What happened

0–3

Durak won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

J. Badura10