TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13153400
Played Sep 18Finished
Kamil Durak
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119111––––
Igor Szymanski
Away
4.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:52 and never touched — 81.1% is still 81.1%
Graded at full timeKamil Durak to win
81.1%
81.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Durak above · Igor Szymanski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-1
Point 49 set 3, 11-1 — our read held Kamil Durak at 81.1%
49 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Durak 3–1 Igor Szymanski Igor Szymanski has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Durak beat Szymanski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:52What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Durak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Durak
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Durak 1511 vs Szymanski 1107
Durak
Correct
both rated, 404 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Durak 80% vs Szymanski 20%
Durak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Durak 90% vs Szymanski 10%
Durak
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Durak +3 · Szymanski +1
Durak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Durak)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDurak 1.20 / Szymanski 4.33
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Durak)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13153400
Durak1.20
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite74% won 36 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Szymanski4.33
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog21% won 78 of 371
Down 0–1, comes back10% 26 of 253
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 182
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDurak3wins
AwaySzymanski1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderDurak leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDurak100%3 of 3
AwaySzymanskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Durak3Szymanski1n = 4Durak took 3 of 4
S2Durak3Szymanski1n = 4Durak took 3 of 4
S3Durak4Szymanski0n = 4Durak took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricDurakSzymanskiD − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match39.828.8+11.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDurakSzymanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 77 vs 95 / 41872.7%22.7%56 / 77 vs 95 / 418Avg sets wonper match2.41.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.533.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurakDurak 1.20/Szymanski 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.1%
Durak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Durak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 18 · 15:50K. Durak331111113I. Szymanski83320
LAug 19 · 24:35K. Durak491111111152I. Szymanski53138813113
WJul 14 · 21:45K. Durak4211911113I. Szymanski35811881
WJul 14 · 17:45K. Durak351311113I. Szymanski1911440
K. Durak10
WSep 18 · 22:10K. Durak1.2511611113J. Nowak3.75911761WSep 18 · 21:00K. Durak1.361110911113M. Baron2.8581211372WSep 18 · 19:40K. Hetnar2.10111110692K. Durak1.67851211113LSep 18 · 18:55L. Oracz2.6381111123K. Durak1.441127101WSep 18 · 18:10K. Durak1.19118612113J. Kaczmarek3.45911111062WSep 18 · 16:35K. Durak1.361210911113M. Baron3.00101211642WSep 18 · 15:50I. Szymanski4.333320K. Durak1.201111113WSep 11 · 02:20K. Durak1.221311113R. Komandzik3.7011370WSep 11 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.80491115112K. Durak1.901111813133WSep 11 · 24:00M. Lebek1.90116371K. Durak1.8071111113
I. Szymanski10
WSep 19 · 24:35J. Nowak1.5792110I. Szymanski2.251111133WSep 18 · 22:55I. Szymanski3.501211113R. Szymik1.2810750LSep 18 · 21:45I. Szymanski1.441312111192A. Szurgot2.631510813113LSep 18 · 20:05I. Szymanski2.639490M. Baron1.441111113LSep 18 · 18:30K. Hetnar1.1781211113I. Szymanski4.501110151LSep 18 · 17:45L. Oracz1.14671113113I. Szymanski5.00111191182LSep 18 · 16:55I. Szymanski4.009980J. Kaczmarek1.221111113LSep 18 · 15:50I. Szymanski4.333320K. Durak1.201111113LSep 17 · 13:55P. Kurek1.1711811113I. Szymanski4.50811621LSep 17 · 13:05L. Oracz1.171311113I. Szymanski4.5011870
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