TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Dytko vs Pawel Kurek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115311411117311
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:25 and never touched: 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
115311411117311
H2H Dawid Dytko 3–1 Pawel Kurek Pawel Kurek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Dytko beat Kurek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:2557.2%Our read52.6%to break even at 1.90
clears by 4.6pp52.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.90 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (52%)
Dytko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Dytko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dytko 1340 vs Kurek 1396
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dytko 80% vs Kurek 40%
Dytko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dytko 60% vs Kurek 40%
Dytko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dytko +2 · Kurek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Kurek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDytko 1.75 / Kurek 1.90
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kurek)+4.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13246292
Dytko1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 24 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Kurek1.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 135 of 335
Down 0–1, comes back22% 42 of 193
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeDytko3wins
AwayKurek1wins
4 of 4 to a deciderDytko leads 3–1, and 4 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dytko2Kurek2n = 4split evenly
S2Dytko1Kurek3n = 4Kurek took 3 of 4
S3Dytko3Kurek1n = 4Dytko took 3 of 4
S4Dytko2Kurek2n = 4split evenly
S5Dytko3Kurek1n = 4Dytko took 3 of 4
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home375%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricDytkoKurekD − KBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match43.544.2−0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDytkoKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 296 vs 466 / 91755.1%50.8%163 / 296 vs 466 / 917Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KurekDytko 1.75/Kurek 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.2%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 5 · 03:30D. Dytko3211341132P. Kurek45511117113
WOct 4 · 21:30D. Dytko47711117113P. Kurek4611961192
WMay 17 · 13:55D. Dytko50119118113P. Kurek4591171172
WMay 17 · 07:55D. Dytko45841111113P. Kurek4111116942
D. Dytko10
WOct 5 · 02:20D. Dytko1.121111113K. Kowalski4.907890WOct 5 · 00:45D. Dytko1.551111113J. Nowak2.258570LOct 4 · 23:30D. Dytko1.989160W. Urban1.731111113WOct 4 · 22:20J. Nowak2.258770D. Dytko1.571111113WOct 4 · 21:30P. Kurek1.6711961192D. Dytko2.10711117113LOct 4 · 20:45D. Dytko2.1591181182P. Gumulinski1.63118117113LOct 4 · 19:10D. Dytko2.109920W. Urban1.661111113WOct 4 · 18:20K. Kowalski2.60511451D. Dytko1.4211811113LSep 29 · 04:40D. Dytko1.8399110O. Sokolowski1.871111133WSep 29 · 03:05L. Oracz1.758760D. Dytko1.901111113
P. Kurek10
WOct 5 · 04:20J. Nowak2.9510750P. Kurek1.361211113WOct 5 · 02:45P. Kurek1.701111113P. Gumulinski2.046440LOct 5 · 01:10P. Kurek1.8278111382W. Urban1.881111411113WOct 5 · 00:20K. Kowalski4.80711551P. Kurek1.1411711113LOct 4 · 23:05P. Kurek2.55111191172P. Gumulinski1.46571113113LOct 4 · 21:30P. Kurek1.6711961192D. Dytko2.10711117113LOct 4 · 20:20P. Kurek1.301110101172K. Kowalski3.10812125113WOct 4 · 18:45P. Kurek1.5091111113J. Nowak2.40118951LOct 4 · 17:30P. Kurek1.9041111882W. Urban1.76119811113LOct 2 · 08:45P. Kurek1.65811481O. Sokolowski2.0511711113
Upcoming Matches
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