TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Storozhenko vs Denys Maltsev 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711112117116––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:04 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Storozhenko above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 66 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 58.9%
66 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Storozhenko 31–35 Denys Maltsev Oleksandr Storozhenko has won 31 of their 66 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:0458.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Storozhenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
31-35 in 66
Maltsev
Wrong
gap of 4 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Storozhenko 1592 vs Maltsev 1517
Storozhenko
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Storozhenko 80% vs Maltsev 20%
Storozhenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Storozhenko 40% vs Maltsev 20%
Storozhenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Storozhenko +2 · Maltsev -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Storozhenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maltsev form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStorozhenko 1.615 / Maltsev 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Storozhenko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251330
Storozhenko1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 04)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 181 of 321
Up 2–0, closes it89% 64 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it71% 117 of 166
Maltsev2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 03)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 84 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStorozhenko5wins
AwayMaltsev5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStorozhenko100%5 of 5
AwayMaltsev100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Storozhenko5Maltsev5n = 10split evenly
S2Storozhenko4Maltsev6n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S3Storozhenko8Maltsev2n = 10Storozhenko took 8 of 10
S4Storozhenko5Maltsev1n = 6Storozhenko took 5 of 6
S5Storozhenko0Maltsev3n = 3Maltsev took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStorozhenkoMaltsevS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.234.2+3.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStorozhenkoMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 567 vs 468 / 91252.4%51.3%297 / 567 vs 468 / 912Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoStorozhenko 1.61/Maltsev 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 23:30O. Storozhenko331111113D. Maltsev238780
WSep 30 · 08:35O. Storozhenko341211113D. Maltsev2710890
LSep 29 · 19:05O. Storozhenko4191141162D. Maltsev41114114113
LSep 26 · 07:55O. Storozhenko28610120D. Maltsev371112143
WSep 25 · 11:55O. Storozhenko4012611113D. Maltsev391011991
WSep 24 · 18:55O. Storozhenko3711411113D. Maltsev25311561
LSep 22 · 22:15O. Storozhenko45114111182D. Maltsev44131145113
LSep 21 · 16:55O. Storozhenko4696111192D. Maltsev47111195113
LSep 19 · 03:00O. Storozhenko355911101D. Maltsev4111117123
WSep 16 · 10:05O. Storozhenko331111113D. Maltsev184680
O. Storozhenko10
WOct 4 · 18:35R. Novak1.576370O. Storozhenko2.251111113WOct 4 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.10414771O. Storozhenko1.67111211113LOct 4 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.401111113O. Storozhenko2.758680WOct 4 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi1.83101060O. Storozhenko1.831212113WOct 4 · 12:05Y. Parahailo1.80811100O. Storozhenko1.911113123LOct 4 · 03:00O. Storozhenko1.8341180D. Shchegelskyi1.831113113LOct 4 · 01:00M. Khomenko1.501111113O. Storozhenko2.509450LOct 3 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.9111116113O. Storozhenko1.80571181LOct 3 · 22:00O. Storozhenko1.83115118112Y. Parahailo1.83111811133LOct 3 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk1.801111113O. Storozhenko1.916970
D. Maltsev10
LOct 3 · 03:00I. Fashchevskyi2.2511125113D. Maltsev1.577101181WOct 3 · 01:30D. Maltsev1.57131111113M. Slozka2.25158851LOct 2 · 23:30O. Storozhenko1.671111113D. Maltsev2.108780LOct 2 · 21:30I. Pytsko1.401113113D. Maltsev2.7591190LOct 2 · 20:30Y. Tebenko1.73611144113D. Maltsev2.00116121162WSep 30 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi2.104690D. Maltsev1.671111113LSep 30 · 09:35D. Maltsev2.751210971I. Pytsko1.40101211113LSep 30 · 08:35D. Maltsev1.9110890O. Storozhenko1.801211113LSep 30 · 07:05D. Maltsev2.0011139552Y. Tebenko1.736111111113LSep 30 · 05:05D. Maltsev1.50881161M. Slozka2.5011117113
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