TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykhailo Potapov vs Oleksandr Storozhenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117811118711115
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:23 and never touched: 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 90 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 66.5%
90 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 11–22 Oleksandr Storozhenko Mykhailo Potapov has won 11 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2366.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Storozhenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-22 in 33
Storozhenko
Wrong
gap of 11 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1511 vs Storozhenko 1601
Storozhenko
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 40% vs Storozhenko 80%
Storozhenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 60% vs Storozhenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov -3 · Storozhenko +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Storozhenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 2.625 / Storozhenko 1.444
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Storozhenko)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251133
Potapov2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 56 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Storozhenko1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 181 of 321
Up 2–0, closes it89% 64 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it71% 117 of 166
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov4wins
AwayStorozhenko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStorozhenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov66.7%2 of 3
AwayStorozhenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov3Storozhenko7n = 10Storozhenko took 7 of 10
S2Potapov5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Potapov5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Potapov4Storozhenko5n = 9Storozhenko took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovStorozhenkoP − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.437.5−2.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 442 vs 298 / 56846.8%52.5%207 / 442 vs 298 / 568Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoPotapov 2.63/Storozhenko 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 10:55M. Potapov2678110O. Storozhenko351111133
WSep 25 · 13:55M. Potapov3811511113O. Storozhenko30511771
LSep 24 · 12:25M. Potapov4411791162O. Storozhenko46911114113
WSep 22 · 20:15M. Potapov4181111113O. Storozhenko30114871
LSep 21 · 13:55M. Potapov355101191O. Storozhenko4011126113
LSep 11 · 21:45M. Potapov34711971O. Storozhenko3811511113
WSep 9 · 05:05M. Potapov4181111113O. Storozhenko34118961
LSep 8 · 12:35M. Potapov27411571O. Storozhenko3911611113
WSep 7 · 23:45M. Potapov41114114113O. Storozhenko4381151182
LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov27511561O. Storozhenko4011711113
M. Potapov10
LOct 6 · 12:35M. Potapov1.8061110111I. Fashchevskyi1.9111612133LSep 29 · 03:00M. Potapov2.10138961D. Maltsev1.67111111113LSep 29 · 01:00V. Korobko3.001011118113M. Potapov1.3612981182WSep 28 · 23:00V. Moshovskyi2.10691111M. Potapov1.6711115113WSep 28 · 22:00M. Potapov2.10711115123I. Pytsko1.67116411102WSep 28 · 21:00I. Fashchevskyi1.83711871M. Potapov1.8311811113LSep 26 · 10:55O. Storozhenko1.571111133M. Potapov2.2578110WSep 26 · 09:55D. Maltsev1.6758131172M. Potapov2.101111116113WSep 26 · 08:25I. Pytsko1.67101171192M. Potapov2.10127118113WSep 26 · 06:25V. Moshovskyi2.00131061152M. Potapov1.731112117113
O. Storozhenko10
WOct 6 · 13:05O. Storozhenko1.6171111113D. Maltsev2.20112761WOct 4 · 18:35R. Novak1.576370O. Storozhenko2.251111113WOct 4 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.10414771O. Storozhenko1.67111211113LOct 4 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.401111113O. Storozhenko2.758680WOct 4 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi1.83101060O. Storozhenko1.831212113WOct 4 · 12:05Y. Parahailo1.80811100O. Storozhenko1.911113123LOct 4 · 03:00O. Storozhenko1.8341180D. Shchegelskyi1.831113113LOct 4 · 01:00M. Khomenko1.501111113O. Storozhenko2.509450LOct 3 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.9111116113O. Storozhenko1.80571181WSep 26 · 10:55O. Storozhenko1.571111133M. Potapov2.2578110
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