TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Neborak vs Oleksandr Ivchuk 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121113118118119
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Neborak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Oleksandr Ivchuk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 104 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Dmytro Neborak at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 24–17 Oleksandr Ivchuk Oleksandr Ivchuk has won 17 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5954.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Ivchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
24-17 in 41
Neborak
Correct
gap of 7 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1601 vs Ivchuk 1689
Ivchuk
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 20% vs Ivchuk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 10% vs Ivchuk 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak -4 · Ivchuk -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Neborak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ivchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 1.833 / Ivchuk 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Neborak)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13251056
Neborak1.83
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Ivchuk1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak2wins
AwayIvchuk8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderIvchuk leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak14.3%1 of 7
AwayIvchuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak7Ivchuk3n = 10Neborak took 7 of 10
S2Neborak4Ivchuk6n = 10Ivchuk took 6 of 10
S3Neborak6Ivchuk4n = 10Neborak took 6 of 10
S4Neborak3Ivchuk6n = 9Ivchuk took 6 of 9
S5Neborak0Ivchuk6n = 6Ivchuk took 6 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakIvchukN − IBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.143.4−3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakIvchukBasisWin rate · lifetime306 / 846 vs 344 / 51336.2%67.1%306 / 846 vs 344 / 513Avg sets wonper match1.72.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.639.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NeborakNeborak 1.83/Ivchuk 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Neborak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 18 · 09:20D. Neborak4812791192O. Ivchuk521011119113
LSep 17 · 16:30D. Neborak32117591O. Ivchuk3851111113
LAug 21 · 17:44D. Neborak48118711112O. Ivchuk46211119133
LAug 21 · 15:00D. Neborak3911411762O. Ivchuk50911811113
LAug 13 · 08:05D. Neborak3711311572O. Ivchuk49811811113
LAug 12 · 15:00D. Neborak46811116102O. Ivchuk51118911123
LAug 8 · 07:50D. Neborak4612912672O. Ivchuk5310111011113
LAug 7 · 14:00D. Neborak341311731O. Ivchuk4015311113
WJul 30 · 09:20D. Neborak341111123O. Ivchuk2899100
WJul 29 · 12:00D. Neborak3741111113O. Ivchuk27115921
D. Neborak10
LOct 6 · 13:30D. Neborak2.208518111O. Shkurupii1.61111116133LOct 6 · 12:00D. Neborak3.25117581O. Bondarchuk1.3381111113LOct 4 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.171111113D. Neborak4.509380LOct 4 · 08:30O. Shkurupii1.61111410113D. Neborak2.209121271WOct 4 · 07:30D. Neborak3.25211117113O. Bondarchuk1.3311881102LOct 4 · 06:30O. Bondarchuk1.331211113D. Neborak3.2510830LOct 4 · 06:00D. Neborak2.1085150O. Shkurupii1.671111173LOct 4 · 05:00D. Neborak4.33126111472O. Zhurba1.201411812113LOct 3 · 17:30O. Bondarchuk1.36111011113D. Neborak3.00912781LOct 3 · 16:00O. Shkurupii1.671211143D. Neborak2.10108120
O. Ivchuk10
LOct 6 · 14:00O. Ivchuk4.338870O. Bondarchuk1.201111113LOct 6 · 13:00O. Belskyi1.9111511113O. Ivchuk1.80411751LSep 18 · 12:20O. Ivchuk4.004890O. Bondarchuk1.221111113LSep 18 · 10:20O. Pavlyuk2.2512118113O. Ivchuk1.571081191WSep 18 · 09:20O. Ivchuk1.831011119113D. Neborak1.8312791192LSep 18 · 08:20O. Zhurba1.2013119113O. Ivchuk4.331151151LSep 17 · 18:30O. Ivchuk1.839840I. Hermakivskyi1.831111113WSep 17 · 16:30D. Neborak1.83117591O. Ivchuk1.8351111113LSep 17 · 15:30O. Ivchuk3.756690O. Bondarchuk1.251111113LSep 17 · 14:30O. Zhurba1.40981114113O. Ivchuk2.75111131272
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