TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Shkurupii vs Dmytro Neborak 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101181412––––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:46 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Shkurupii to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Shkurupii above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 67 set 3, 14-12 · our read held Oleksandr Shkurupii at 57.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Shkurupii 134–61 Dmytro Neborak Dmytro Neborak has won 61 of their 195 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Shkurupii beat Neborak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4657.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Shkurupii
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
134-61 in 195
Shkurupii
Correct
gap of 73 in 195, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shkurupii 1674 vs Neborak 1645
Shkurupii
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shkurupii 60% vs Neborak 0%
Shkurupii
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shkurupii 40% vs Neborak 10%
Shkurupii
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shkurupii -1 · Neborak -9
Neborak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Shkurupii) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (0%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShkurupii 1.666 / Neborak 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Shkurupii)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234747
Shkurupii1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 51 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it82% 31 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it71% 41 of 58
Neborak2.10
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 9
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 117 of 318
Down 0–1, comes back17% 31 of 184
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShkurupii4wins
AwayNeborak6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNeborak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShkurupii66.7%4 of 6
AwayNeborak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shkurupii6Neborak4n = 10Shkurupii took 6 of 10
S2Shkurupii4Neborak6n = 10Neborak took 6 of 10
S3Shkurupii3Neborak5n = 8Neborak took 5 of 8
S4Shkurupii4Neborak1n = 5Shkurupii took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShkurupiiNeborakS − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.838.5−0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShkurupiiNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime334 / 688 vs 305 / 83648.6%36.5%334 / 688 vs 305 / 836Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShkurupiiShkurupii 1.67/Neborak 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Shkurupii · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Shkurupii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 13 · 08:30O. Shkurupii351113113D. Neborak2891180
LSep 13 · 06:00O. Shkurupii45119101142D. Neborak45811123113
LAug 30 · 07:30O. Shkurupii25113110D. Neborak391115133
WAug 30 · 06:30O. Shkurupii4812138153D. Neborak45101111131
WAug 16 · 09:30O. Shkurupii4111117123D. Neborak316411101
LAug 16 · 04:30O. Shkurupii33851281D. Neborak43111110113
O. Shkurupii10
LOct 3 · 15:30O. Shkurupii2.255640O. Bondarchuk1.571111113WOct 3 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.5779140O. Shkurupii2.251111163WOct 3 · 13:30D. Neborak2.008450O. Shkurupii1.73111193LOct 3 · 12:00O. Zhurba1.251111113O. Shkurupii3.759790WSep 13 · 10:00O. Zhurba1.28109111172O. Shkurupii3.50121165113WSep 13 · 08:30D. Neborak2.2091180O. Shkurupii1.611113113LSep 13 · 07:30O. Shkurupii2.508311131S. Hohenko1.5011119153LSep 13 · 06:30S. Hohenko1.501191110113O. Shkurupii2.5061171252LSep 13 · 06:00O. Shkurupii1.61119101142D. Neborak2.20811123113LSep 13 · 05:00O. Shkurupii3.50451161O. Zhurba1.2811117113
D. Neborak10
LOct 3 · 15:00D. Neborak4.506590O. Zhurba1.171111113LOct 3 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.1711119113D. Neborak4.50991131LOct 3 · 13:30D. Neborak2.008450O. Shkurupii1.73111193LOct 3 · 12:30D. Neborak3.0011911942O. Bondarchuk1.36111811113LSep 29 · 11:35R. Lazebnyi2.251111133D. Neborak1.5777110LSep 29 · 10:05D. Neborak1.73111114932I. Romaniak2.00461611113LSep 29 · 08:05O. Napirko2.10811816113D. Neborak1.67114111472LSep 29 · 06:05D. Shcherbak1.831111113D. Neborak1.837850LSep 13 · 08:30D. Neborak2.2091180O. Shkurupii1.611113113WSep 13 · 06:00O. Shkurupii1.61119101142D. Neborak2.20811123113
Upcoming Matches
O. Shkurupii
Nothing scheduled
D. Neborak
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