TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Shkurupii vs Dmytro Neborak 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11914121012117––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:27 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Shkurupii to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Shkurupii above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 86 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Oleksandr Shkurupii at 61.7%
86 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Shkurupii 136–61 Dmytro Neborak Dmytro Neborak has won 61 of their 197 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Shkurupii beat Neborak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2761.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 0.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Shkurupii
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
136-61 in 197
Shkurupii
Correct
gap of 75 in 197, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shkurupii 1703 vs Neborak 1629
Shkurupii
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shkurupii 40% vs Neborak 20%
Shkurupii
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shkurupii 50% vs Neborak 10%
Shkurupii
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shkurupii +1 · Neborak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Shkurupii) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShkurupii 1.615 / Neborak 2.20
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Shkurupii)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13239844
Shkurupii1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 52 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it84% 32 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it72% 42 of 58
Neborak2.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog36% won 115 of 320
Down 0–1, comes back16% 30 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 117
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShkurupii5wins
AwayNeborak5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShkurupii71.4%5 of 7
AwayNeborak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shkurupii7Neborak3n = 10Shkurupii took 7 of 10
S2Shkurupii5Neborak5n = 10split evenly
S3Shkurupii4Neborak4n = 8split evenly
S4Shkurupii3Neborak0n = 3Shkurupii took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricShkurupiiNeborakS − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.235.8+2.4per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShkurupiiNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime337 / 694 vs 306 / 84248.6%36.3%337 / 694 vs 306 / 842Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShkurupiiShkurupii 1.61/Neborak 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Shkurupii · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shkurupii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 4 · 06:00O. Shkurupii391111173D. Neborak2885150
WOct 3 · 16:00O. Shkurupii371211143D. Neborak30108120
WSep 13 · 08:30O. Shkurupii351113113D. Neborak2891180
LSep 13 · 06:00O. Shkurupii45119101142D. Neborak45811123113
LAug 30 · 07:30O. Shkurupii25113110D. Neborak391115133
WAug 30 · 06:30O. Shkurupii4812138153D. Neborak45101111131
O. Shkurupii10
LOct 4 · 09:30O. Shkurupii2.38111011542O. Bondarchuk1.53612511113WOct 4 · 08:00O. Shkurupii3.50511112113O. Zhurba1.2811681182LOct 4 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113O. Shkurupii3.505990WOct 4 · 06:00D. Neborak2.1085150O. Shkurupii1.671111173LOct 4 · 04:30O. Bondarchuk1.531113123O. Shkurupii2.38911100LOct 3 · 17:00O. Shkurupii3.507380O. Zhurba1.281111103WOct 3 · 16:00O. Shkurupii1.671211143D. Neborak2.10108120LOct 3 · 15:30O. Shkurupii2.255640O. Bondarchuk1.571111113WOct 3 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.5779140O. Shkurupii2.251111163WOct 3 · 13:30D. Neborak2.008450O. Shkurupii1.73111193
D. Neborak10
WOct 4 · 07:30D. Neborak3.25211117113O. Bondarchuk1.3311881102LOct 4 · 06:30O. Bondarchuk1.331211113D. Neborak3.2510830LOct 4 · 06:00D. Neborak2.1085150O. Shkurupii1.671111173LOct 4 · 05:00D. Neborak4.33126111472O. Zhurba1.201411812113LOct 3 · 17:30O. Bondarchuk1.36111011113D. Neborak3.00912781LOct 3 · 16:00O. Shkurupii1.671211143D. Neborak2.10108120LOct 3 · 15:00D. Neborak4.506590O. Zhurba1.171111113LOct 3 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.1711119113D. Neborak4.50991131LOct 3 · 13:30D. Neborak2.008450O. Shkurupii1.73111193LOct 3 · 12:30D. Neborak3.0011911942O. Bondarchuk1.36111811113
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