TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Shkurupii vs Oleksandr Zhurba 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511116118211118
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:57 and never touched: 74.3% is still 74.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhurba to win
74.3%
74.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Shkurupii above · Oleksandr Zhurba below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 84 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Oleksandr Zhurba at 74.3%
84 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Shkurupii 73–155 Oleksandr Zhurba Oleksandr Shkurupii has won 73 of their 228 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Zhurba beat Shkurupii 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5774.3%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 3.5pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Zhurba
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
73-155 in 228
Zhurba
Wrong
gap of 82 in 228, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shkurupii 1683 vs Zhurba 1950
Zhurba
Wrong
both rated, 267 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shkurupii 40% vs Zhurba 60%
Zhurba
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shkurupii 50% vs Zhurba 80%
Zhurba
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shkurupii -1 · Zhurba +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Zhurba) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhurba form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShkurupii 3.50 / Zhurba 1.285
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Zhurba)-3.5pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13239874
Shkurupii3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 28 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back6% 3 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 43
Zhurba1.28
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite72% won 155 of 214
Up 2–0, closes it97% 93 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it87% 119 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShkurupii1wins
AwayZhurba9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZhurba leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShkurupiin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayZhurba100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shkurupii1Zhurba9n = 10Zhurba took 9 of 10
S2Shkurupii1Zhurba9n = 10Zhurba took 9 of 10
S3Shkurupii1Zhurba8n = 9Zhurba took 8 of 9
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away880%
These 10 meetings
MetricShkurupiiZhurbaS − ZBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match23.935.4−11.5per matchSweeps08−83–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShkurupiiZhurbaBasisWin rate · lifetime336 / 693 vs 449 / 68148.5%65.9%336 / 693 vs 449 / 681Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZhurbaShkurupii 3.50/Zhurba 1.28
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.3%
Zhurba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shkurupii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 4 · 07:00O. Shkurupii235990O. Zhurba331111113
LOct 3 · 12:00O. Shkurupii259790O. Zhurba331111113
WSep 13 · 10:00O. Shkurupii45121165113O. Zhurba48109111172
LSep 13 · 05:00O. Shkurupii26451161O. Zhurba4011117113
LSep 12 · 14:00O. Shkurupii186660O. Zhurba331111113
LAug 30 · 10:00O. Shkurupii165380O. Zhurba331111113
LAug 30 · 05:00O. Shkurupii176560O. Zhurba331111113
LAug 29 · 17:00O. Shkurupii257990O. Zhurba331111113
LAug 29 · 12:00O. Shkurupii207670O. Zhurba331111113
O. Shkurupii10
LOct 4 · 09:30O. Shkurupii2.38111011542O. Bondarchuk1.53612511113WOct 4 · 08:30O. Shkurupii1.61111410113D. Neborak2.209121271LOct 4 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113O. Shkurupii3.505990WOct 4 · 06:00D. Neborak2.1085150O. Shkurupii1.671111173LOct 4 · 04:30O. Bondarchuk1.531113123O. Shkurupii2.38911100LOct 3 · 17:00O. Shkurupii3.507380O. Zhurba1.281111103WOct 3 · 16:00O. Shkurupii1.671211143D. Neborak2.10108120LOct 3 · 15:30O. Shkurupii2.255640O. Bondarchuk1.571111113WOct 3 · 14:30O. Bondarchuk1.5779140O. Shkurupii2.251111163WOct 3 · 13:30D. Neborak2.008450O. Shkurupii1.73111193
O. Zhurba10
WOct 4 · 09:00O. Zhurba1.4411126143O. Bondarchuk2.6391011121WOct 4 · 07:00O. Zhurba1.281111113O. Shkurupii3.505990LOct 4 · 05:30O. Bondarchuk2.6311115113O. Zhurba1.44891191WOct 4 · 05:00D. Neborak4.33126111472O. Zhurba1.201411812113WOct 3 · 17:00O. Shkurupii3.507380O. Zhurba1.281111103LOct 3 · 16:30O. Bondarchuk3.25681111113O. Zhurba1.3311116832WOct 3 · 15:00D. Neborak4.506590O. Zhurba1.171111113WOct 3 · 14:00O. Zhurba1.1711119113D. Neborak4.50991131WOct 3 · 13:00O. Zhurba1.36116121183O. Bondarchuk3.0041114772WOct 3 · 12:00O. Zhurba1.251111113O. Shkurupii3.759790
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