TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Miroslaw Lewczuk vs Marcin Zielinski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119511911311––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:49 and never touched: 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeMarcin Zielinski to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Marcin Zielinski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 70 set 4, 3-11 · our read held Marcin Zielinski at 69.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 0–3 Marcin Zielinski Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:4969.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Zielinski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Zielinski
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1420 vs Zielinski 1643
Zielinski
Correct
both rated, 223 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 60% vs Zielinski 80%
Zielinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 70% vs Zielinski 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk +2 · Zielinski +3
Zielinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Zielinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lewczuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 2.75 / Zielinski 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Zielinski)-2.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13248243
Lewczuk2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 66 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 70
Zielinski1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLewczuk0wins
AwayZielinski3wins
2 of 3 to a deciderZielinski leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk0%0 of 3
AwayZielinskin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk3Zielinski0n = 3Lewczuk took 3 of 3
S2Lewczuk0Zielinski3n = 3Zielinski took 3 of 3
S3Lewczuk0Zielinski3n = 3Zielinski took 3 of 3
S4Lewczuk2Zielinski1n = 3Lewczuk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricLewczukZielinskiL − ZBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match40.047.0−7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukZielinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime514 / 1001 vs 22 / 2951.4%75.9%514 / 1001 vs 22 / 29Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZielinskiLewczuk 2.75/Zielinski 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Zielinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zielinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 5 · 18:55M. Lewczuk28115931M. Zielinski4291111113
LOct 2 · 04:20M. Lewczuk44116101162M. Zielinski48611128113
LOct 1 · 18:45M. Lewczuk4811791292M. Zielinski518111110113
M. Lewczuk10
WOct 5 · 17:45M. Lewczuk1.9111128113M. Leczycki1.802101181WOct 5 · 16:15M. Lewczuk1.611111113M. Kumor2.204930LOct 5 · 15:00M. Lewczuk2.5051161132H. Tkaczyk1.50119116113LOct 2 · 04:20M. Lewczuk—116101162M. Zielinski—611128113WOct 2 · 03:05M. Lewczuk2.2081211113A. Zmijewski1.571110861WOct 2 · 01:55M. Lewczuk1.4611119113M. Wolny2.55761141WOct 2 · 00:45J. Michalik2.0011117652M. Lewczuk1.72991111113WOct 1 · 23:55M. Lewczuk1.3011113113A. Staniczek3.05761181WOct 1 · 22:20M. Lewczuk1.431111143D. Molenda2.6389120LOct 1 · 21:05M. Lewczuk2.1043111172A. Zmijewski1.66111156113
M. Zielinski10
WOct 5 · 19:40M. Kumor2.759470M. Zielinski1.401111113WOct 5 · 18:10M. Zielinski1.53117146113A. Krezel2.38611121182WOct 5 · 16:35M. Zielinski2.1011115113H. Tkaczyk1.67871151WOct 5 · 15:50M. Leczycki2.63111111592M. Zielinski1.44941311113LOct 3 · 02:20M. Zielinski2.7058110T. Kocik1.401111133WOct 3 · 00:45J. Oracz2.0911671132M. Zielinski1.67911119113WOct 3 · 00:00M. Wozniczka2.258990M. Zielinski1.551111113WOct 2 · 23:10M. Zielinski1.3011128113K. Malcher3.205101191WOct 2 · 22:00M. Zielinski1.85101112123C. Pawlik1.8012810101WOct 2 · 04:20M. Lewczuk—116101162M. Zielinski—611128113
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk
M. Zielinski
Oct 5 · 21:00M. Zielinski1.86H. Tkaczyk1.80—Oct 5 · 22:10M. Zielinski1.25M. Kumor3.70—Oct 5 · 23:30M. Zielinski—M. Leczycki——Oct 6 · 00:30M. Zielinski1.28M. Lewczuk3.50—Oct 6 · 01:50M. Zielinski—A. Krezel——Oct 6 · 17:55M. Zielinski—M. Machelski——Oct 6 · 20:45M. Zielinski—H. Tkaczyk——Oct 6 · 21:55M. Zielinski—A. Fomin——Oct 6 · 23:05M. Zielinski—M. Brunner——Oct 6 · 23:55M. Zielinski—M. Machelski——
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