TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Miroslaw Lewczuk vs Henryk Tkaczyk 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511119611116311
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:48 and never touched: 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 84 set 5, 3-11 · our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 66.9%
84 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 16–45 Henryk Tkaczyk Miroslaw Lewczuk has won 16 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:4866.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
clears by 0.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-45 in 61
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 29 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1416 vs Tkaczyk 1538
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 80% vs Tkaczyk 100%
Tkaczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 70% vs Tkaczyk 90%
Tkaczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -1 · Tkaczyk +9
Tkaczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 2.50 / Tkaczyk 1.50
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13244313
Lewczuk2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 66 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back18% 21 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 70
Tkaczyk1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 9
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite70% won 412 of 592
Up 2–0, closes it93% 230 of 247
Up 1–0, closes it85% 316 of 371
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk2wins
AwayTkaczyk8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayTkaczyk100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Lewczuk5Tkaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Lewczuk6Tkaczyk4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S4Lewczuk2Tkaczyk6n = 8Tkaczyk took 6 of 8
S5Lewczuk0Tkaczyk3n = 3Tkaczyk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukTkaczykL − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.839.7−2.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime512 / 997 vs 1021 / 149751.4%68.2%512 / 997 vs 1021 / 1497Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykLewczuk 2.50/Tkaczyk 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 22:10M. Lewczuk26410120H. Tkaczyk371112143
WSep 29 · 01:10M. Lewczuk351311113H. Tkaczyk2411850
LSep 28 · 16:15M. Lewczuk41111051142H. Tkaczyk44612114113
LSep 27 · 21:20M. Lewczuk418111481H. Tkaczyk4311516113
LSep 27 · 15:25M. Lewczuk4371111952H. Tkaczyk49119711113
LSep 24 · 23:30M. Lewczuk4071212542H. Tkaczyk5311101011113
LSep 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk356101181H. Tkaczyk3811124113
WSep 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk4211119113H. Tkaczyk29651171
LSep 3 · 21:20M. Lewczuk361081171H. Tkaczyk4012116113
LSep 3 · 15:25M. Lewczuk29851151H. Tkaczyk4011117113
M. Lewczuk10
LOct 2 · 04:20M. Lewczuk—116101162M. Zielinski—611128113WOct 2 · 03:05M. Lewczuk2.2081211113A. Zmijewski1.571110861WOct 2 · 01:55M. Lewczuk1.4611119113M. Wolny2.55761141WOct 2 · 00:45J. Michalik2.0011117652M. Lewczuk1.72991111113WOct 1 · 23:55M. Lewczuk1.3011113113A. Staniczek3.05761181WOct 1 · 22:20M. Lewczuk1.431111143D. Molenda2.6389120LOct 1 · 21:05M. Lewczuk2.1043111172A. Zmijewski1.66111156113WOct 1 · 19:55M. Lewczuk1.521111143M. Wolny2.3768120LOct 1 · 18:45M. Zielinski—8111110113M. Lewczuk—11791292WOct 1 · 17:55M. Lewczuk1.37111714113A. Staniczek2.751191241
H. Tkaczyk10
WOct 4 · 19:40Z. Nocun2.1041111792H. Tkaczyk1.67116611113WOct 4 · 18:55K. Kwiatkowski3.40119111172H. Tkaczyk1.30611134113WOct 4 · 18:10H. Tkaczyk1.1711116113A. Staniczek4.50581181WOct 4 · 16:35H. Tkaczyk1.021111113A. Szurgot11.003770WOct 4 · 15:50G. Mucha3.409280H. Tkaczyk1.301111113WOct 4 · 08:00W. Jozala3.858760H. Tkaczyk1.231111113WOct 4 · 07:10W. Pytlas2.50118991H. Tkaczyk1.4751111113WOct 4 · 06:25H. Tkaczyk1.80112115113K. Juszczyk1.9291141192WOct 4 · 04:50H. Tkaczyk1.9011117113P. Zemla1.75981191LOct 4 · 04:00M. Koczyba—1051111113H. Tkaczyk—12116992
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk
Oct 5 · 17:45M. Lewczuk2.00M. Leczycki1.73—Oct 5 · 18:55M. Lewczuk2.63M. Zielinski1.44—Oct 5 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.83A. Krezel1.83—Oct 5 · 21:45M. Lewczuk—M. Leczycki——Oct 5 · 22:30M. Lewczuk2.50H. Tkaczyk1.50—Oct 5 · 23:50M. Lewczuk1.83A. Krezel1.83—Oct 6 · 00:30M. Lewczuk2.63M. Zielinski1.44—Oct 6 · 01:10M. Lewczuk—M. Kumor——
H. Tkaczyk
Oct 5 · 16:35H. Tkaczyk1.67M. Zielinski2.10—Oct 5 · 17:20H. Tkaczyk1.40M. Kumor2.75—Oct 5 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.53A. Krezel2.38—Oct 5 · 20:05H. Tkaczyk1.50M. Leczycki2.50—Oct 5 · 21:00H. Tkaczyk—M. Zielinski——Oct 5 · 22:30H. Tkaczyk1.50M. Lewczuk2.50—Oct 5 · 23:10H. Tkaczyk—M. Kumor——Oct 6 · 00:50H. Tkaczyk1.53A. Krezel2.38—Oct 6 · 01:30H. Tkaczyk—M. Leczycki——Oct 6 · 19:10H. Tkaczyk—A. Fomin——
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