TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Miroslaw Lewczuk vs Adam Staniczek 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11117191412114––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:41 and never touched: 70.1% is still 70.1%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
70.1%
70.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
11117191412114––
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 88–16 Adam Staniczek Adam Staniczek has won 16 of their 104 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4170.1%Our read73.0%to break even at 1.37
short by 2.9pp73.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.37 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.37 (67%)
Lewczuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
88-16 in 104
Lewczuk
Correct
gap of 72 in 104, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1356 vs Staniczek 1308
Lewczuk
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 40% vs Staniczek 60%
Staniczek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 60% vs Staniczek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -1 · Staniczek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Lewczuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 1.37 / Staniczek 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Lewczuk)-2.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13222943
Lewczuk1.37
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 176 of 258
Up 2–0, closes it97% 114 of 118
Up 1–0, closes it84% 137 of 164
Staniczek2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog25% won 124 of 488
Down 0–1, comes back11% 34 of 309
Down 0–2, comes back2% 5 of 232
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk6wins
AwayStaniczek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLewczuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk83.3%5 of 6
AwayStaniczek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk6Staniczek4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S2Lewczuk5Staniczek5n = 10split evenly
S3Lewczuk6Staniczek4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S4Lewczuk6Staniczek1n = 7Lewczuk took 6 of 7
S5Lewczuk1Staniczek3n = 4Staniczek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukStaniczekL − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.235.6+4.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime505 / 987 vs 366 / 100351.2%36.5%505 / 987 vs 366 / 1003Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.434.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukLewczuk 1.37/Staniczek 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.1%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 04:40M. Lewczuk3911116113A. Staniczek31961151
WSep 24 · 22:40M. Lewczuk351311113A. Staniczek2511770
WSep 23 · 21:45M. Lewczuk4291111113A. Staniczek27116461
LSep 23 · 17:45M. Lewczuk4211571542A. Staniczek537111113113
WSep 11 · 01:25M. Lewczuk331111113A. Staniczek145540
WSep 10 · 19:20M. Lewczuk43111011113A. Staniczek31612851
WAug 28 · 01:30M. Lewczuk5311101011113A. Staniczek4691212942
LAug 27 · 19:30M. Lewczuk29118100A. Staniczek361311123
LAug 20 · 00:35M. Lewczuk4049111152A. Staniczek48111169113
LAug 19 · 18:30M. Lewczuk4681111972A. Staniczek45118411113
M. Lewczuk10
LOct 1 · 18:45M. Zielinski—8111110113M. Lewczuk—11791292LOct 1 · 01:45M. Lewczuk1.53211671G. Mucha2.3811911113WOct 1 · 00:35M. Lewczuk1.6781111123M. Machelski2.101185101WSep 30 · 23:20M. Lewczuk2.63111177113Z. Nocun1.4465111182LSep 30 · 22:10H. Tkaczyk1.501112143M. Lewczuk2.50410120LSep 30 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.7386100J. Skorupa2.001111123WSep 30 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.5011118113A. Skupinski2.50871161WSep 30 · 18:30M. Lewczuk1.5791111113M. Machelski2.25116721LSep 30 · 17:20M. Lewczuk2.3871090Z. Nocun1.531112113WSep 30 · 16:15G. Mucha2.203530M. Lewczuk1.611111113
A. Staniczek10
LOct 1 · 05:05A. Fomin1.8981111113A. Staniczek1.83118321LOct 1 · 03:55A. Staniczek4.05139971J. Zelezik1.18111111113WOct 1 · 02:45J. Michalik1.42117112122A. Staniczek2.60711911143WOct 1 · 01:30M. Zielinski—71070A. Staniczek—1112113WSep 30 · 23:55W. Stechly3.759230A. Staniczek1.241111113WSep 30 · 23:05J. Michalik1.4312580A. Staniczek2.431411113LSep 30 · 21:55A. Staniczek3.40111243112J. Zelezik1.259101111133LSep 30 · 20:45A. Fomin1.281111113A. Staniczek3.403770WSep 30 · 19:30M. Zielinski—139111172A. Staniczek—151188113LSep 30 · 17:55J. Slawomir1.571111113A. Staniczek2.254960
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A. Staniczek
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