TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Miroslaw Lewczuk vs Michal Machelski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116117112––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:26 and never touched: 60.0% is still 60.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslaw Lewczuk to win
60.0%
60.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Miroslaw Lewczuk @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingMiroslaw Lewczuk above · Michal Machelski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 68 set 4, 11-2 · our read held Miroslaw Lewczuk at 60.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Miroslaw Lewczuk 55–16 Michal Machelski Michal Machelski has won 16 of their 71 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:2660.0%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.7pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Lewczuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
55-16 in 71
Lewczuk
Correct
gap of 39 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lewczuk 1352 vs Machelski 1286
Lewczuk
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lewczuk 60% vs Machelski 40%
Lewczuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lewczuk 50% vs Machelski 30%
Lewczuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lewczuk -1 · Machelski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Lewczuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLewczuk 1.571 / Machelski 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Lewczuk)-3.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13221797
Lewczuk1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 173 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it96% 114 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it83% 136 of 164
Machelski2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 121 of 354
Down 0–1, comes back20% 41 of 203
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLewczuk8wins
AwayMachelski2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLewczuk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLewczuk83.3%5 of 6
AwayMachelski25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lewczuk6Machelski4n = 10Lewczuk took 6 of 10
S2Lewczuk9Machelski1n = 10Lewczuk took 9 of 10
S3Lewczuk5Machelski5n = 10split evenly
S4Lewczuk4Machelski4n = 8split evenly
S5Lewczuk3Machelski1n = 4Lewczuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLewczukMachelskiL − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.834.1+8.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLewczukMachelskiBasisWin rate · lifetime501 / 980 vs 408 / 110451.1%37%501 / 980 vs 408 / 1104Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.435.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LewczukLewczuk 1.57/Machelski 2.25
Hit
What we said
60%
Lewczuk · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Miroslaw Lewczuk @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
3–1
Lewczuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 01:00M. Lewczuk341111123M. Machelski1853100
WSep 16 · 18:55M. Lewczuk331111113M. Machelski188550
WSep 4 · 00:35M. Lewczuk47111195113M. Machelski4679111182
WSep 3 · 18:30M. Lewczuk4071111113M. Machelski31116861
WJun 22 · 22:25M. Lewczuk4111118113M. Machelski18511111
LJun 19 · 00:45M. Lewczuk52111179142M. Machelski49561111163
LJun 16 · 00:25M. Lewczuk371081181M. Machelski4212118113
WJun 15 · 20:45M. Lewczuk4291111113M. Machelski32118941
WJun 8 · 22:25M. Lewczuk48111178113M. Machelski4166111172
WJun 1 · 21:35M. Lewczuk549111211113M. Machelski4611714862
M. Lewczuk10
WSep 30 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.5011118113A. Skupinski2.50871161LSep 30 · 17:20M. Lewczuk2.3871090Z. Nocun1.531112113WSep 30 · 16:15G. Mucha2.203530M. Lewczuk1.611111113WSep 30 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.8011411113J. Skorupa1.91811961WSep 29 · 01:10M. Lewczuk2.381311113H. Tkaczyk1.5311850LSep 29 · 00:10M. Lewczuk1.839660A. Krezel1.831111113LSep 28 · 23:10M. Lewczuk2.25113761Z. Nocun1.5791111113WSep 28 · 22:10A. Barton7.5011115952M. Lewczuk1.07981111113LSep 28 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.8381171192K. Kwiatkowski1.83119112113WSep 28 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.50145611113A. Skupinski2.50121111182
M. Machelski10
LSep 30 · 17:45G. Mucha1.6112118113M. Machelski2.201071161WSep 30 · 16:55M. Machelski2.251311113J. Skorupa1.5711570LSep 30 · 15:50M. Machelski1.617111031A. Skupinski2.2011812113WSep 29 · 02:20M. Machelski2.941911113J. Zelezik1.3517450LSep 29 · 00:45J. Cyndera1.961051111113M. Machelski1.7612115952LSep 29 · 00:00J. Michalik1.361111133M. Machelski2.9075110LSep 28 · 23:10M. Machelski1.90611471A. Staniczek1.8211711113LSep 28 · 22:00M. Machelski2.3711671482A. Kubiak1.529111112113LSep 28 · 08:00J. Slawomir1.7031111113M. Machelski2.00116471WSep 28 · 07:10T. Kordaszewski2.853960M. Machelski1.351111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Lewczuk
Sep 30 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.73J. Skorupa2.00—Sep 30 · 22:10M. Lewczuk2.50H. Tkaczyk1.50—Sep 30 · 23:20M. Lewczuk2.50Z. Nocun1.50—Oct 1 · 00:35M. Lewczuk1.73M. Machelski2.00—Oct 1 · 01:45M. Lewczuk1.53G. Mucha2.38—Oct 1 · 17:55M. Lewczuk—A. Staniczek——Oct 1 · 19:55M. Lewczuk—M. Wolny——Oct 1 · 21:05M. Lewczuk—A. Zmijewski——Oct 1 · 22:20M. Lewczuk—D. Molenda——Oct 1 · 23:55M. Lewczuk—A. Staniczek——
M. Machelski
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.