TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Zielinski vs Andrzej Krezel 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1167111412611118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:04 and never touched: 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeMarcin Zielinski to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Zielinski above · Andrzej Krezel below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 97 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Marcin Zielinski at 63.6%
97 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Zielinski 1–0 Andrzej Krezel Andrzej Krezel has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:0463.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zielinski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Zielinski 1643 vs Krezel 1455
Zielinski
Correct
both rated, 187 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zielinski 80% vs Krezel 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zielinski 70% vs Krezel 50%
Zielinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zielinski +2 · Krezel +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Zielinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krezel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZielinski 1.533 / Krezel 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Zielinski)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13248488
Zielinski1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Krezel2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 63 of 192
Down 0–1, comes back13% 14 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeZielinski1wins
AwayKrezel0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderZielinski leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricZielinskiKrezelZ − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match49.048.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZielinskiKrezelBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 29 vs 112 / 28475.9%39.4%22 / 29 vs 112 / 284Avg sets wonper match2.41.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.635.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZielinskiZielinski 1.53/Krezel 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Zielinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zielinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 5 · 18:10M. Zielinski49117146113A. Krezel48611121182
M. Zielinski10
WOct 5 · 19:40M. Kumor2.759470M. Zielinski1.401111113WOct 5 · 18:55M. Lewczuk2.75115931M. Zielinski1.4091111113WOct 5 · 16:35M. Zielinski2.1011115113H. Tkaczyk1.67871151WOct 5 · 15:50M. Leczycki2.63111111592M. Zielinski1.44941311113LOct 3 · 02:20M. Zielinski2.7058110T. Kocik1.401111133WOct 3 · 00:45J. Oracz2.0911671132M. Zielinski1.67911119113WOct 3 · 00:00M. Wozniczka2.258990M. Zielinski1.551111113WOct 2 · 23:10M. Zielinski1.3011128113K. Malcher3.205101191WOct 2 · 22:00M. Zielinski1.85101112123C. Pawlik1.8012810101WOct 2 · 20:20M. Zielinski1.5961111113T. Kocik2.23119671
A. Krezel10
WOct 5 · 19:20A. Krezel2.38111199113H. Tkaczyk1.5343111122WOct 5 · 16:55M. Leczycki2.00711761A. Krezel1.7311711113WOct 5 · 15:25M. Kumor2.207370A. Krezel1.611111113LOct 2 · 02:10A. Krezel2.007530Z. Nocun1.731111113WOct 2 · 00:35A. Skupinski2.75117831A. Krezel1.4081111113WOct 1 · 23:45M. Leczycki1.73711851A. Krezel2.0011711113LOct 1 · 22:55A. Krezel1.05711121192A. Barton8.50118147113LOct 1 · 21:45A. Krezel1.80811611142A. Fomin1.91119116163WOct 1 · 20:05A. Krezel1.67111213113Z. Nocun2.109101561LOct 1 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.401111149113A. Krezel1.30513121192
Upcoming Matches
M. Zielinski
Oct 5 · 21:00M. Zielinski1.86H. Tkaczyk1.80—Oct 5 · 22:10M. Zielinski1.25M. Kumor3.70—Oct 5 · 23:30M. Zielinski—M. Leczycki——Oct 6 · 00:30M. Zielinski1.28M. Lewczuk3.50—Oct 6 · 01:50M. Zielinski—A. Krezel——Oct 6 · 17:55M. Zielinski—M. Machelski——Oct 6 · 20:45M. Zielinski—H. Tkaczyk——Oct 6 · 21:55M. Zielinski—A. Fomin——Oct 6 · 23:05M. Zielinski—M. Brunner——Oct 6 · 23:55M. Zielinski—M. Machelski——
A. Krezel
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