TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Olbrycht vs Jakub Kuzmicz 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
81112141191012––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:26 and never touched: 69.6% is still 69.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
69.6%
69.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
81112141191012––
H2H Michal Olbrycht 6–20 Jakub Kuzmicz Michal Olbrycht has won 6 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2669.6%Our read70.4%to break even at 1.42
short by 0.8pp70.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.42 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.42 (64%)
Kuzmicz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-20 in 26
Kuzmicz
Correct
gap of 14 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olbrycht 1731 vs Kuzmicz 1774
Kuzmicz
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olbrycht 80% vs Kuzmicz 40%
Olbrycht
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olbrycht 70% vs Kuzmicz 40%
Olbrycht
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Olbrycht -1 · Kuzmicz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Kuzmicz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (70%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlbrycht 2.55 / Kuzmicz 1.42
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Kuzmicz)-0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13247624
Olbrycht2.55
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 87 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 73
Kuzmicz1.42
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 391 of 629
Up 2–0, closes it98% 165 of 169
Up 1–0, closes it82% 275 of 337
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOlbrycht2wins
AwayKuzmicz8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlbrycht50%2 of 4
AwayKuzmicz100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olbrycht4Kuzmicz6n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10
S2Olbrycht6Kuzmicz4n = 10Olbrycht took 6 of 10
S3Olbrycht4Kuzmicz6n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10
S4Olbrycht1Kuzmicz6n = 7Kuzmicz took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOlbrychtKuzmiczO − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.639.6−4.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlbrychtKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime391 / 810 vs 740 / 129348.3%57.2%391 / 810 vs 740 / 1293Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmiczOlbrycht 2.55/Kuzmicz 1.42
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.6%
Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kuzmicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 04:25M. Olbrycht341111123J. Kuzmicz2697100
LSep 28 · 00:10M. Olbrycht49118111182J. Kuzmicz49611138113
LSep 27 · 19:15M. Olbrycht197930J. Kuzmicz331111113
WSep 26 · 21:50M. Olbrycht331111113J. Kuzmicz238960
LSep 26 · 15:25M. Olbrycht32711951J. Kuzmicz4211911113
LSep 17 · 04:50M. Olbrycht388119101J. Kuzmicz4311911123
LSep 2 · 22:55M. Olbrycht331091131J. Kuzmicz4312119113
LAug 19 · 21:25M. Olbrycht50811111282J. Kuzmicz51118714113
LAug 18 · 23:20M. Olbrycht371171181J. Kuzmicz4491113113
LAug 18 · 20:30M. Olbrycht31911651J. Kuzmicz4211911113
M. Olbrycht10
LOct 6 · 04:00M. Olbrycht1.81114131052K. Wloczko1.904111112113WOct 6 · 03:00M. Olbrycht1.7511713113G. Poliniewicz1.956111151WOct 5 · 14:35M. Malachowski1.8011961382M. Olbrycht1.909111111113WOct 5 · 13:25M. Olbrycht1.651211113D. Kostal2.0510470WOct 5 · 12:10M. Sklensky1.576940M. Olbrycht2.201111113WOct 5 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.8099100M. Olbrycht1.911111123LOct 5 · 09:20G. Poliniewicz1.821111910113M. Olbrycht1.8898111252WOct 5 · 07:40D. Kostal2.15101060M. Olbrycht1.601212113LOct 5 · 06:50G. Poliniewicz1.9111811113M. Olbrycht1.78911471WOct 5 · 06:00M. Olbrycht2.601091211113M. Sklensky1.41121110962
J. Kuzmicz10
WOct 6 · 06:25K. Wloczko1.70891171J. Kuzmicz1.9511116113LOct 6 · 04:50J. Kuzmicz1.6610760M. Malachowski2.101211113WOct 6 · 03:40J. Kuzmicz2.101011911113P. Chodorski1.6012411642LOct 5 · 14:10K. Kolodziej2.00111111113J. Kuzmicz1.73139961WOct 5 · 13:20J. Kosowski1.36911111172J. Kuzmicz3.00111357113LOct 5 · 11:15P. David1.501114113J. Kuzmicz2.5061260LOct 5 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.67111110113J. Kuzmicz2.10951291WOct 5 · 09:00G. Felkel1.6189100J. Kuzmicz2.201111123LOct 2 · 15:00J. Kuzmicz2.003550M. Jadczyk1.731111113LOct 2 · 13:45J. Kuzmicz1.73811111162K. Kolodziej2.00111386113
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