TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vadim Reva vs Ruslan Serhyenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117116––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVadim Reva to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVadim Reva above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 55 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Vadim Reva at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Vadim Reva 3–0 Ruslan Serhyenko Ruslan Serhyenko has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5154.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Reva
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Reva
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reva 1349 vs Serhyenko 1262
Reva
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reva 100% vs Serhyenko 80%
Reva
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reva 80% vs Serhyenko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Reva +8 · Serhyenko +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Reva) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serhyenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReva 1.80 / Serhyenko 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Reva)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245454
Reva1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 65 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it83% 49 of 59
Serhyenko1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog35% won 60 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back24% 22 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back14% 8 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeReva3wins
AwaySerhyenko0wins
Reva leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReva100%3 of 3
AwaySerhyenkon = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reva3Serhyenko0n = 3Reva took 3 of 3
S2Reva1Serhyenko2n = 3Serhyenko took 2 of 3
S3Reva3Serhyenko0n = 3Reva took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricRevaSerhyenkoR − SBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match40.030.3+9.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRevaSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 391 vs 253 / 56855.8%44.5%218 / 391 vs 253 / 568Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RevaReva 1.80/Serhyenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Reva · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Reva won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 5 · 19:05V. Reva331111113R. Serhyenko229760
WOct 1 · 19:05V. Reva4111811113R. Serhyenko34911951
WSep 22 · 14:35V. Reva46111014113R. Serhyenko355121261
V. Reva10
WOct 5 · 17:05M. Karelov2.109940V. Reva1.671111113WOct 5 · 16:05V. Reva1.7361111113H. Buianover2.00115661WOct 5 · 15:05V. Lukianevych2.258111011112V. Reva1.57115129133WOct 5 · 13:35V. Reva1.8311118143A. Azarov1.837611121WOct 1 · 19:05V. Reva1.8311811113R. Serhyenko1.83911951WOct 1 · 17:05V. Lukianevych2.2071050V. Reva1.611112113WOct 1 · 16:05V. Reva2.1014911113A. Azarov1.671211681WOct 1 · 15:05V. Leonov1.25106111192V. Reva3.75121169113LOct 1 · 13:35V. Reva1.73711014102H. Buianover2.001181112123LSep 22 · 19:35V. Reva1.83111215482H. Buianover1.8313101311113
R. Serhyenko10
WOct 5 · 18:05H. Buianover3.004970R. Serhyenko1.361111113WOct 5 · 16:35V. Lukianevych3.25814851R. Serhyenko1.33111211113WOct 5 · 14:35A. Azarov2.00961141R. Serhyenko1.7311119113WOct 5 · 12:35M. Karelov2.0081070R. Serhyenko1.731112113LOct 1 · 19:05V. Reva1.8311811113R. Serhyenko1.83911951WOct 1 · 18:05A. Azarov1.8371141152R. Serhyenko1.83116117113WOct 1 · 16:35V. Leonov2.252101181R. Serhyenko1.5711126113LOct 1 · 14:35H. Buianover4.501211113R. Serhyenko1.1710750WOct 1 · 12:35V. Lukianevych2.2073140R. Serhyenko1.611111163LSep 22 · 19:05M. Karelov2.38361211113R. Serhyenko1.53111110882
Upcoming Matches
V. Reva
Nothing scheduled
R. Serhyenko
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.