TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Daniel Kostal vs Miroslav Sklensky 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711117112118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:16 and never touched: 74.8% is still 74.8%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Sklensky to win
74.8%
74.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
711117112118––
H2H Daniel Kostal 2–3 Miroslav Sklensky Daniel Kostal has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:1674.8%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 2.1pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (71%)
Sklensky
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostal 1653 vs Sklensky 1742
Sklensky
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostal 20% vs Sklensky 60%
Sklensky
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostal 30% vs Sklensky 60%
Sklensky
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostal -3 · Sklensky -1
Kostal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Sklensky) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sklensky form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostal 3.20 / Sklensky 1.30
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Sklensky)-2.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13245253
Kostal3.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 24 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Sklensky1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 217 of 328
Up 2–0, closes it95% 120 of 126
Up 1–0, closes it82% 159 of 194
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKostal2wins
AwaySklensky3wins
Sklensky leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKostaln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySklensky66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostal2Sklensky3n = 5Sklensky took 3 of 5
S2Kostal2Sklensky3n = 5Sklensky took 3 of 5
S3Kostal3Sklensky2n = 5Kostal took 3 of 5
S4Kostal2Sklensky3n = 5Sklensky took 3 of 5
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKostalSklenskyK − SBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match36.639.2−2.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostalSklenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime40 / 99 vs 669 / 113040.4%59.2%40 / 99 vs 669 / 1130Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SklenskyKostal 3.20/Sklensky 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.8%
Sklensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kostal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 5 · 03:20D. Kostal4071111113M. Sklensky28117281
LSep 28 · 14:35D. Kostal38147891M. Sklensky45121111113
WSep 28 · 03:40D. Kostal3711312113M. Sklensky346111071
LSep 18 · 09:20D. Kostal351061271M. Sklensky44121110113
LSep 18 · 06:00D. Kostal33614761M. Sklensky45111211113
D. Kostal10
WOct 5 · 04:00G. Poliniewicz1.683690D. Kostal2.051111113LOct 4 · 14:10D. Kostal2.50133671K. Wisniewski1.50111111113LOct 4 · 12:30K. Kolodziej1.13111110113D. Kostal5.50431241LOct 4 · 11:40P. David1.2011118133D. Kostal4.339111111WOct 4 · 10:50D. Kostal2.0071112113K. Kapik1.731171041LOct 4 · 09:40D. Kostal4.001181281M. Jadczyk1.2241114113LOct 4 · 08:30K. Kolodziej1.401112113D. Kostal2.7551040WOct 4 · 07:20D. Kostal1.6191511113K. Wisniewski2.201113761LOct 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.221011511113D. Kostal4.0012911832LOct 4 · 04:55P. David1.201111113D. Kostal4.333770
M. Sklensky10
LSep 29 · 13:50M. Miastowski1.57111111113M. Sklensky2.20137961WSep 29 · 13:00J. Kuzmicz1.90117891M. Sklensky1.8091111113WSep 29 · 12:10M. Sklensky2.15911311113K. Kolodziej1.6211511392WSep 29 · 10:30M. Sklensky1.301111113K. Staszczyk3.255690LSep 29 · 09:45A. Spychala1.7511611113M. Sklensky1.98911671WSep 29 · 08:30M. Miastowski1.607280M. Sklensky2.151111113LSep 29 · 07:15M. Sklensky1.8011148452K. Wloczko1.855121111113WSep 29 · 06:00M. Kolek2.50125781M. Sklensky1.47101111113LSep 29 · 04:50G. Poliniewicz3.20611119113M. Sklensky1.3111941172WSep 29 · 03:20K. Wisniewski5.50661121M. Sklensky1.1311117113
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