TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yurii Bondarenko vs Yevhenii Holoborodko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61111711912141210
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:22 and never touched: 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Holoborodko to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYurii Bondarenko above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 103 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Yevhenii Holoborodko at 56.8%
103 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Bondarenko 2–10 Yevhenii Holoborodko Yurii Bondarenko has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2256.8%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 5.1pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Holoborodko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-10 in 12
Holoborodko
Wrong
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1651 vs Holoborodko 1557
Bondarenko
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 60% vs Holoborodko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 60% vs Holoborodko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko +2 · Holoborodko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Holoborodko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 2.20 / Holoborodko 1.615
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Holoborodko)-5.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240323
Bondarenko2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 6 of 17
Down 0–1, comes back9% 1 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Holoborodko1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 103 of 194
Up 2–0, closes it89% 42 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it68% 66 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBondarenko2wins
AwayHoloborodko8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHoloborodko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenko50%2 of 4
AwayHoloborodko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko4Holoborodko6n = 10Holoborodko took 6 of 10
S2Bondarenko3Holoborodko7n = 10Holoborodko took 7 of 10
S3Bondarenko4Holoborodko6n = 10Holoborodko took 6 of 10
S4Bondarenko4Holoborodko4n = 8split evenly
S5Bondarenko1Holoborodko3n = 4Holoborodko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBondarenkoHoloborodkoB − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.740.7−3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 95 vs 349 / 68053.7%51.3%51 / 95 vs 349 / 680Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HoloborodkoBondarenko 2.20/Holoborodko 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.8%
Holoborodko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 06:00Y. Bondarenko4511861192Y. Holoborodko42311116113
LSep 9 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko368116111Y. Holoborodko4411911133
WSep 2 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko331111113Y. Holoborodko227870
LAug 26 · 15:59Y. Bondarenko4377111172Y. Holoborodko48111178113
LAug 26 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko3910101181Y. Holoborodko4312128113
LAug 16 · 08:30Y. Bondarenko4989111382Y. Holoborodko501111611113
LAug 9 · 08:00Y. Bondarenko31711581Y. Holoborodko3611311113
WJul 12 · 08:30Y. Bondarenko43113711113Y. Holoborodko4771111992
LJun 28 · 07:00Y. Bondarenko258890Y. Holoborodko331111113
LFeb 22 · 07:00Y. Bondarenko331111471Y. Holoborodko4271311113
Y. Bondarenko10
WOct 4 · 07:00Y. Bondarenko1.611111113O. Kuzyshyn2.205550WOct 4 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko1.8310111110143A. Droshchynskyi1.83127812122LSep 27 · 10:30O. Blashkun1.671112113Y. Bondarenko2.1051040LSep 27 · 09:30Y. Bondarenko1.831184101O. Zhyrnov1.8381111123WSep 27 · 08:30Y. Bondarenko1.331111113Y. Makovka3.258770LSep 27 · 07:00Y. Bondarenko1.80911128102A. Droshchynskyi1.911191011123WSep 27 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko1.501111153O. Varlamov2.5057130WSep 13 · 09:00Y. Bondarenko1.441011711153O. Varlamov2.63128118142WSep 13 · 07:30Y. Bondarenko1.801111113A. Zozulia1.916860LSep 13 · 06:00Y. Bondarenko2.2011861192Y. Holoborodko1.61311116113
Y. Holoborodko10
WOct 4 · 06:30O. Varlamov1.8021161142Y. Holoborodko1.91119119113WOct 4 · 04:30A. Obishchenko1.735111061Y. Holoborodko2.0011712113LOct 3 · 17:40A. Zozulia1.6161111103Y. Holoborodko2.20116941WOct 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.753111110113O. Kuzyshyn1.4011891292LOct 3 · 14:10A. Droshchynskyi1.3091411113Y. Holoborodko3.401112941WOct 3 · 12:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.61951191Y. Holoborodko2.2011116113LOct 3 · 11:10R. Pomin1.611111113Y. Holoborodko2.205890LOct 1 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko2.006880M. Tiutiunnyk1.731111113WOct 1 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.80711119102Y. Holoborodko1.91113711123WSep 13 · 06:00Y. Bondarenko2.2011861192Y. Holoborodko1.61311116113
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