TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jerzy Michalik vs Grzegorz Mucha 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1161311411611119
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:37 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJerzy Michalik above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 93 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 54.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Michalik 5–7 Grzegorz Mucha Jerzy Michalik has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:3754.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mucha
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Mucha
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1370 vs Mucha 1419
Mucha
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 60% vs Mucha 80%
Mucha
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 60% vs Mucha 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik -1 · Mucha -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Mucha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 2.00 / Mucha 1.727
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Mucha)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13239142
Michalik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 115 of 328
Down 0–1, comes back17% 32 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 112
Mucha1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 115 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it97% 59 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it77% 78 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik4wins
AwayMucha6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMucha leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMucha62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik2Mucha8n = 10Mucha took 8 of 10
S2Michalik6Mucha4n = 10Michalik took 6 of 10
S3Michalik6Mucha4n = 10Michalik took 6 of 10
S4Michalik4Mucha6n = 10Mucha took 6 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikMuchaMichalik − MuchaBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.541.7−1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime571 / 1209 vs 190 / 37747.2%50.4%571 / 1209 vs 190 / 377Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaMichalik 2.00/Mucha 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 05:05J. Michalik351012581G. Mucha44121011113
LAug 29 · 22:55J. Michalik391091191G. Mucha4112117113
LAug 29 · 16:55J. Michalik3811121141G. Mucha4613148113
LAug 13 · 01:25J. Michalik27311761G. Mucha4211911113
LAug 12 · 19:20J. Michalik29114861G. Mucha4071111113
LAug 8 · 21:00J. Michalik51812813102G. Mucha5511101111123
WAug 8 · 16:35J. Michalik4211811123G. Mucha314116101
WJul 13 · 23:45J. Michalik574111119123G. Mucha49115221102
WJul 9 · 01:45J. Michalik4691115113G. Mucha371141391
WJul 8 · 16:15J. Michalik4181111113G. Mucha32117861
J. Michalik10
WOct 5 · 01:00J. Michalik1.80111110113K. Kwiatkowski1.91871241LOct 4 · 22:10J. Michalik2.63111211892Z. Nocun1.44914711113WOct 4 · 21:00J. Michalik1.53811117113A. Szurgot2.3811671162WOct 2 · 05:05J. Michalik1.581111113A. Staniczek2.256980LOct 2 · 03:30J. Michalik—81111452M. Zielinski—114911113WOct 2 · 02:20J. Michalik1.6411911113A. Zmijewski2.14611821LOct 2 · 00:45J. Michalik2.0011117652M. Lewczuk1.72991111113WOct 1 · 23:30J. Michalik1.8591111133M. Wolny1.851177111WOct 1 · 04:20W. Stechly2.3081171152J. Michalik1.56115113113WOct 1 · 03:30A. Fomin1.55981191J. Michalik2.3011116113
G. Mucha10
LOct 5 · 00:35Z. Nocun1.5371111113G. Mucha2.38116981LOct 4 · 22:55G. Mucha1.40131211782A. Staniczek2.751510511113WOct 4 · 21:45G. Mucha1.671111811113K. Kwiatkowski2.1044111372WOct 4 · 20:05G. Mucha1.36411138113A. Szurgot3.00116111162WOct 4 · 18:30Z. Nocun1.61115781G. Mucha2.2091111113WOct 4 · 17:45K. Kwiatkowski2.006170G. Mucha1.731111113LOct 4 · 16:55G. Mucha1.50991371A. Staniczek2.50111111113LOct 4 · 15:50G. Mucha3.409280H. Tkaczyk1.301111113WOct 4 · 01:45P. Gesiarz2.25651181G. Mucha1.5711111113WOct 4 · 01:00D. Pyrek2.506770G. Mucha1.461111113
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