TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jerzy Michalik vs Kacper Kwiatkowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181171012114––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:44 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJerzy Michalik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJerzy Michalik above · Kacper Kwiatkowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 74 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Jerzy Michalik at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jerzy Michalik 10–8 Kacper Kwiatkowski Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:4454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Michalik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Michalik
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalik 1393 vs Kwiatkowski 1300
Michalik
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalik 60% vs Kwiatkowski 20%
Michalik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalik 70% vs Kwiatkowski 20%
Michalik
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalik +1 · Kwiatkowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Michalik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalik 1.80 / Kwiatkowski 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Michalik)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243111
Michalik1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 144 of 231
Up 2–0, closes it94% 74 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it75% 106 of 141
Kwiatkowski1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 79 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalik5wins
AwayKwiatkowski5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalik100%5 of 5
AwayKwiatkowski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalik5Kwiatkowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Michalik3Kwiatkowski7n = 10Kwiatkowski took 7 of 10
S3Michalik4Kwiatkowski6n = 10Kwiatkowski took 6 of 10
S4Michalik4Kwiatkowski1n = 5Michalik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalikKwiatkowskiM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.836.7−0.9per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalikKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime573 / 1211 vs 147 / 33947.3%43.4%573 / 1211 vs 147 / 339Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MichalikMichalik 1.80/Kwiatkowski 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Michalik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Michalik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 01:00J. Michalik43111110113K. Kwiatkowski31871241
LSep 30 · 02:20J. Michalik30101370K. Kwiatkowski381215113
LSep 27 · 01:00J. Michalik2551190K. Kwiatkowski351113113
WSep 26 · 18:55J. Michalik4313811113K. Kwiatkowski351111671
LSep 24 · 21:00J. Michalik49131341182K. Kwiatkowski541511116113
WSep 24 · 16:35J. Michalik331111113K. Kwiatkowski192890
WSep 23 · 00:45J. Michalik43111011113K. Kwiatkowski37912791
LSep 18 · 04:20J. Michalik2111370K. Kwiatkowski351311113
WSep 17 · 18:45J. Michalik561161117113K. Kwiatkowski5081171952
LAug 25 · 23:30J. Michalik153750K. Kwiatkowski331111113
J. Michalik10
WOct 4 · 23:45J. Michalik2.00111346113G. Mucha1.73611111192LOct 4 · 22:10J. Michalik2.63111211892Z. Nocun1.44914711113WOct 4 · 21:00J. Michalik1.53811117113A. Szurgot2.3811671162WOct 2 · 05:05J. Michalik1.581111113A. Staniczek2.256980LOct 2 · 03:30J. Michalik—81111452M. Zielinski—114911113WOct 2 · 02:20J. Michalik1.6411911113A. Zmijewski2.14611821LOct 2 · 00:45J. Michalik2.0011117652M. Lewczuk1.72991111113WOct 1 · 23:30J. Michalik1.8591111133M. Wolny1.851177111WOct 1 · 04:20W. Stechly2.3081171152J. Michalik1.56115113113WOct 1 · 03:30A. Fomin1.55981191J. Michalik2.3011116113
K. Kwiatkowski10
WOct 5 · 01:45Z. Nocun1.6191170K. Kwiatkowski2.201113113LOct 5 · 00:10K. Kwiatkowski1.731112118132A. Staniczek2.008101311153WOct 4 · 22:35K. Kwiatkowski1.671111123A. Szurgot2.1086100LOct 4 · 21:45G. Mucha1.671111811113K. Kwiatkowski2.1044111372LOct 4 · 20:30K. Kwiatkowski1.73741211102A. Staniczek2.001111109123LOct 4 · 18:55K. Kwiatkowski3.40119111172H. Tkaczyk1.30611134113LOct 4 · 17:45K. Kwiatkowski2.006170G. Mucha1.731111113LOct 4 · 16:15K. Kwiatkowski2.2012151071Z. Nocun1.61101712113WOct 4 · 15:00K. Kwiatkowski1.671111123A. Szurgot2.1047100LSep 30 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.8597100J. Skorupa1.851111123
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