TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Mucha vs Adam Staniczek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
13151210115711811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:53 and never touched: 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Adam Staniczek below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 103 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 69.5%
103 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 11–9 Adam Staniczek Adam Staniczek has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Staniczek beat Mucha 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:5369.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Mucha
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Mucha
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mucha 1419 vs Staniczek 1307
Mucha
Wrong
both rated, 113 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mucha 80% vs Staniczek 60%
Mucha
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mucha 80% vs Staniczek 40%
Mucha
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mucha +4 · Staniczek -1
Mucha
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Mucha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 1.40 / Staniczek 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Mucha)-1.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13239144
Mucha1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 115 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it97% 59 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it77% 78 of 101
Staniczek2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog25% won 124 of 489
Down 0–1, comes back11% 34 of 309
Down 0–2, comes back2% 5 of 231
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMucha4wins
AwayStaniczek6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStaniczek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMucha60%3 of 5
AwayStaniczek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha5Staniczek5n = 10split evenly
S2Mucha4Staniczek6n = 10Staniczek took 6 of 10
S3Mucha6Staniczek4n = 10Mucha took 6 of 10
S4Mucha4Staniczek4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMuchaStaniczekM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.439.2−0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 377 vs 368 / 101350.4%36.3%190 / 377 vs 368 / 1013Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.934.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaMucha 1.40/Staniczek 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Staniczek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 22:55G. Mucha51131211782A. Staniczek521510511113
LOct 4 · 16:55G. Mucha38991371A. Staniczek44111111113
WSep 25 · 01:30G. Mucha4791314113A. Staniczek3711111231
LSep 24 · 19:30G. Mucha228770A. Staniczek331111113
WSep 6 · 01:25G. Mucha4214116113A. Staniczek361271161
WSep 5 · 19:20G. Mucha3711411113A. Staniczek26311481
LAug 13 · 02:35G. Mucha381178121A. Staniczek4371111143
WAug 12 · 18:10G. Mucha331111113A. Staniczek237880
LAug 9 · 21:00G. Mucha51118141352A. Staniczek589111611113
LAug 9 · 16:35G. Mucha25831131A. Staniczek4011117113
G. Mucha10
LOct 5 · 00:35Z. Nocun1.5371111113G. Mucha2.38116981LOct 4 · 23:45J. Michalik2.00111346113G. Mucha1.73611111192WOct 4 · 21:45G. Mucha1.671111811113K. Kwiatkowski2.1044111372WOct 4 · 20:05G. Mucha1.36411138113A. Szurgot3.00116111162WOct 4 · 18:30Z. Nocun1.61115781G. Mucha2.2091111113WOct 4 · 17:45K. Kwiatkowski2.006170G. Mucha1.731111113LOct 4 · 16:55G. Mucha1.50991371A. Staniczek2.50111111113LOct 4 · 15:50G. Mucha3.409280H. Tkaczyk1.301111113WOct 4 · 01:45P. Gesiarz2.25651181G. Mucha1.5711111113WOct 4 · 01:00D. Pyrek2.506770G. Mucha1.461111113
A. Staniczek10
WOct 5 · 01:25A. Staniczek1.171211113A. Szurgot4.5010990WOct 5 · 00:10K. Kwiatkowski1.731112118132A. Staniczek2.008101311153LOct 4 · 21:20Z. Nocun1.3311111113113A. Staniczek3.25135131182WOct 4 · 20:30K. Kwiatkowski1.73741211102A. Staniczek2.001111109123WOct 4 · 19:20A. Staniczek1.731111113A. Szurgot2.007440LOct 4 · 18:10H. Tkaczyk1.1711116113A. Staniczek4.50581181WOct 4 · 16:55G. Mucha1.50991371A. Staniczek2.50111111113LOct 4 · 15:25Z. Nocun1.33841111113A. Staniczek3.2511118742LOct 2 · 05:05J. Michalik1.581111113A. Staniczek2.256980LOct 2 · 03:55A. Staniczek2.3581060M. Wolny1.501112113
Upcoming Matches
G. Mucha
Nothing scheduled
A. Staniczek
Oct 5 · 02:35A. Staniczek2.50J. Michalik1.50—Oct 5 · 15:35A. Staniczek—J. Cyndera——Oct 5 · 17:10A. Staniczek—P. Gesiarz——Oct 5 · 18:25A. Staniczek—D. Maszczynski——Oct 5 · 19:35A. Staniczek—A. Kubiak——Oct 5 · 20:45A. Staniczek—A. Zmijewski——Oct 5 · 21:35A. Staniczek—J. Cyndera——Oct 5 · 23:10A. Staniczek—J. Michalik——Oct 6 · 00:25A. Staniczek—A. Zmijewski——Oct 6 · 01:35A. Staniczek—A. Kubiak——
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